by adrian tout | May 24, 2025 | Asset Allocation, Debt, Interest Rates / Bonds, S&P500
Words: 1,877 Time: 8 Minutes Worst week since early April – as uncertainty mounts Fresh tariff threats and deficit concerns rattle investors Why Bond Vigilantes (not the Senate) will have the final say on the Budget Markets paused to take a breath this week... by adrian tout | May 19, 2025 | China, Earnings, Equity Risk Premium, Trump Tariffs
Words: 1,734 Time: 8 Minutes 84% of S&P 500 companies cite “uncertainty” in Q1 earnings calls How much will demand pull forward impact Q3/Q4 earnings? It may pay to reduce your exposure at ~22x fwd PE ratio Factset reported today that S&P 500... by adrian tout | May 17, 2025 | Credit, Interest Rates / Bonds, Trump Tariffs
Words: 1,267 Time: 6 Minutes Moody’s cuts the US credit rating Congress should pass a bill to reduce spending (not increase it) Estimating the impact of tariffs on consumers (as confidence sinks) The other day, I talked to the (lack of) equity risk premium (ERP)... by adrian tout | May 15, 2025 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, US 10-Year Yield
Words: 893 Time: 4 Minutes Why now is not the time to add meaningful exposure Equity risk premiums are extremely low U.S. govt. desperately needs to get its borrowing and spending under control The S&P continues its impressive six week rally – up over 22%... by adrian tout | May 12, 2025 | Monetary policy, Trump Tariffs, Valuations
Words: 1,346 Time: 6 Minutes Three reasons why I don’t trust this 20% rally V-shaped rallies are generally associated with a (large) monetary response A 90-day pause in tariffs is not a trade deal. Markets staged a ‘rip your face off’ rally on the...