Anatomy of a Supply Shock: Using Data Frameworks to Filter Market NoiseFrameworks to assess the impact of the war Lessons from the previous oil spikes Finding resilient capital in a stagflationary world In the world of macro investing, we often see years where less happens in the energy markets than what…
Geopolitics Destroys Narrative but Economic Fundamentals Destroy WealthMost geopolitical shocks are brief buying opportunities unless they trigger total war or close markets. The real market threat is oil-driven inflation, which could prevent the Federal Reserve cutting rates The US benefits from geographical distance, while a surging dollar…
NVDA Valuation Analysis: AI Capex, Free Cash Flow, and Market RealityMarkets are shifting from AI euphoria to demanding real cash flow. Private credit cracks, circular AI financing, and stretched valuations are raising hard questions about sustainability. As growth slows and multiples compress, 2026 is shaping up to be a true “show me the money” year for investors.
Private Credit vs 2008: The Hidden Risks of the Leverage LoopPrivate credit has grown into a $1.8 trillion market built on leverage loops, opaque valuations, and covenant-lite lending. With banks exposed via $300B in loans and AI disruption threatening cash flows, the real risk isn’t visible market losses — it’s hidden architecture that could transmit stress back into the financial system
Agentic AI and the Future of SaaS: Disruption vs. Structural DestructionMarkets weigh Agentic AI”s threat to traditional application layers. Will AI enhance existing workflows or structurally impair legacy SaaS business models? From blanket euphoria to strategic redistribution On the surface, you could be forgiven for thinking the S&P 500 looks…
The AI Red Queen Race: Why Massive Capex and Market Cycles Signal a Rotation to ValueFrom an index perspective, it has been a lackluster start to the year. At the time of writing, markets have made very little ground over the first 6 weeks. The good news – it”s still early. However, given the incredible…
The AI Adoption Gap: Applying the Toothbrush Test to Generative AI ValuationsWhile AI remains undeniably impressive, its transition from a helpful assistant to a mission-critical necessity is facing a significant adoption gap. With daily active use remains thin, investors are beginning to question the durability of "asset-light" returns as capital expenditure soars into the hundreds of billions. This shift from software-driven scalability to hardware-heavy reinvestment suggests a major reassessment of valuations is underway, as markets weigh the probability of long-term value capture against extreme multiples.
The Macro of Institutional Trust: Fed Independence, Gold, and the Liquidity CycleTrust is the invisible architecture of the global financial system. When central bank independence is questioned or fiscal discipline slips, markets don't just adjust—they convulse. While Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair provides a stabilizing institutional anchor, it doesn't end the "debasement trade." With gold and silver undergoing a violent but necessary reset, investors must distinguish between technical profit-taking and the long-term diversification away from dollar-centric reserves. In modern macro, it’s always a matter of trust.
The Ellis Framework: Why Real PCE is the “Seeing Around Corners” Metric for Market CyclesHeadline indicators suggest economic resilience, but underlying data reveals structural cracks. While personal consumption remains high, it is increasingly fueled by government transfers rather than private wages. With real spending outpacing income and pending home sales plunging 9.3%, Real PCE serves as a critical leading indicator of an approaching market downturn
The Return of the Bond Vigilantes: JGBs, US Treasuries, and the End of Fiscal ComplacencyU.S. equities just suffered their worst session since October, but tariffs and geopolitics may be a sideshow. The real source of market unease lies beneath the surface — in global bond markets. From Tokyo to U.S. Treasuries, long-dated yields are rising sharply, challenging years of monetary suppression. When bond vigilantes stir, markets begin to question fiscal credibility, not headlines. And history shows those moments rarely stay contained for long.
The 100bp Neutral Rate Rule: Why Underlying Inflation Challenges the “Goldilocks” NarrativeWhile the latest U.S. inflation print was celebrated as a “Goldilocks” outcome, a closer look suggests the disinflation story is far more fragile. Beneath the headline numbers, core and alternative measures imply inflation is likely to plateau near 3%, with important implications for Fed policy, equity valuations, and sector positioning in 2026
The Carry Trade Unwind: Why Rising JGB Yields Signal a Global Liquidity ShiftFor decades, shorting Japanese Government Bonds earned the nickname “the widow maker,” destroying capital despite seemingly sound logic. Japan’s massive debt, near-zero rates, and dormant inflation suggested yields had nowhere to go but up—yet markets punished premature bets. That dynamic has now shifted. Rising yields signal a genuine regime change driven by fiscal expansion, political influence within the ruling LDP, and a decisive pivot by the Bank of Japan away from yield curve control. For the first sustained period since 2019, bondholders are being rewarded. This shift carries broad implications for global capital flows, currencies, and equity markets
