by adrian tout | Aug 24, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Real PCE, Uncategorized
The war with unwanted inflation is over But will 150 bps of rate cuts the next 12 months avoid a (sharp) slowdown? All eyes now turn to PCE (Aug 30) and Nonfarm Payrolls (Sept 6) “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing...
by adrian tout | Aug 21, 2024 | Debt, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Market History, Uncategorized, Valuations
How total aggregate sector debt acts as leading indicator of monetary policy Debt growth YoY (all sectors) has slowed sharply the past 3 years Fed to set the stage for rate cuts in September – but don’t expect 50 bps This week is all about the Fed…...
by adrian tout | Aug 17, 2024 | Consumer Spending, Fed Reserve, Real PCE
Why nominal monthly retail sales are often misleading V-shaped rally could be short-lived Eyes shift to Jackson Hole – how dovish will the Fed be? This week we received advanced retail sales for the month of July. From mine, this is one of the more important...
by adrian tout | Aug 15, 2024 | Apple, Asset Allocation, Big Tech, NVDA
13F filings give us insight into the smart money Knowing when to sell more important than buying Q2 trades from Ackman, Buffett, Elliot Management and Tepper Something I do four times a year is pore through something known as “13Fs” A 13F is a quarterly...
by adrian tout | Aug 9, 2024 | Credit, Investing Lessons, Real GDP, Real PCE
End of the 20-year cheap money era Periods of heightened volatility is a market in transition I doubt Monday’s sell off will be the last Think of a time when you worked through major transition in your life. For example, maybe it was the end of a relationship; a...
