Last week all eyes were on large cap tech earnings. They delivered a mixed bag… but on the whole ‘better than feared’. Q1 earnings didn’t fall off a cliff. Single digit growth (top and bottom line) was largely cheered – which highlights how low expectations were. Next week eyes turn to the Fed. The market has priced in a 25 bps hike for May – but will it be a ‘dovish’ hike – where they offer language to suggest a pause in June? Or will they say “there’s more work to do”?
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Banks Surge on Earnings…
JP Morgan kicked off Q1 ’23 earnings season with a record beat. The US’ largest bank by assets saw strong deposit inflows as it raised its guidance for net interest income. The question is how will regional banks report? It’s likely to be a different story. Meanwhile we had a host of important economic data this week – showing inflation is cooling (albeit very slowly) and the economy is stalling. But there was little which will stop the Fed raising rates by 25 bps May 2nd…
Pop then Drop! Green Light for Fed Hike
Investors cheered the news of a slightly lower than expected CPI print from March. However, Core Inflation exceeded expectations and actually increased. That’s important – as that’s what the Fed are focused on. Here’s the thing: with Core inflation running at 5.6% YoY – don’t expect cuts anytime soon. It’s almost 3x the Fed’s target. Yes inflation is cooling – slowly – but not where the Fed need it to be. From mine, you can lock in another 25 bps for May 2nd. Bond markets see that. Equities are yet to get the memo