Inflation: How Hot is ‘Too Hot’?CPI for October is likely to come in hot... expect a high 7-handle. But how much is too hot? Anything north of 8% cements another 75 bps; however something closer to 7.7% may give some hope the Fed can tap the brakes.
Fed AftermathApple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google have all been crushed post earnings. Apple is the 'best' performer - down approx 13% the past two weeks. What's next for large cap tech? I see more downside... and this post explains why.
Powell: ‘A Long Way to Go’No pause. No pivot. It's enough to make "doves cry". However, Fed said there will be a time when they will slow down rate hikes. But we're not there yet... expect rates to be higher than previously expected.
‘Fed Whisperer’ Spurs MarketThe rally is on... but how far can it go? I will share my thoughts. And whilst we're likely to see a short-term shift in sentiment... longer-term headwinds remain.
Short Term Rip… Then a Bigger DipAnother bear market rally or something else? My view is the former until proven otherwise. For me, we need to see yields and the dollar peak. But in the meantime - don't be surprised to see this market add 10%+ before pulling back.
Does the Bullish Case Hold Water?Markets tried hard to rally this week - but was met with strong selling. I lay out both the bullish and bearish case... where I favor lower prices with a S&P 500 target of 3200
Fed Gets another ‘Green Light’ September's strong jobs report gave the Fed more scope to continue with their aggressive rate hikes. Unfortunate a Fed "green light" is a stock "red light"
Tread Carefully…The two biggest headwinds facing stocks are higher rates (bond yields) and the US dollar index. Both are yet to peak or show signs of a downward trend. And until they do - we can't call a bottom in equities.
Forget Stocks… It’s All About Bond YieldsWhere bonds go - so go equities. As bond yields surge to new highs - with the 2-year yield now well above 4.0% - stocks are almost certain to trade lower.
The Only Way is UpIs 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality...
