CPI Exceeds 9% YoY – Fed to Stay the CourseCPI for June was a white-hot 9.1% YoY. But should that be a surprise? Not really. What it does suggest is two consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points... however most of that has been priced in.
Sell this Bounce… and Why NZ is Worth WatchingWe are in the midst of a bear market rally - but I don't trust it for three reasons. Separately, is New Zealand a canary in the coal mine regarding the impact of raising interest rates?
Recession: The ‘Cost’ of Unwanted InflationToday the Fed reminded us they have one objective (and only one): to bring inflation back to its target level of 2.0%. However, the unspoken narrative was sacrifices will need to be made (i.e. expect a recession)
Worst 6-Months to Start a Year Since 1970It's becoming increasingly likely we will see a recession next year (maybe before). And there's one thing that every recession has in common post 1950 -- aggressive Fed tightening into a slowing economy.
Why Markets Crash; and Why It Spells OpportunityWhy do markets crash? And how do you identify the likelihood of downside risk before it happens? And when it happens - how do you know when to get back in?
Fed Hints at ~3.50% by Year’s EndFor the first time since '94 - the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points. You can lock in 75 bps for July. However, they will need to do a lot more to tame unwanted inflation.
The Bear Roars… Markets Price in 75 bps HikeWhen it comes to the market - there are (a) times to make money; and (b) times not to lose money. Now is the time for the latter... the past decade was the time for the former.
We Haven’t Seen the Lows for 2022Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) continues to run at a 41-year high 8.6%. It's not hard to explain - look no further than monetary and fiscal policy. From mine, the Fed has no choice but to remain very aggressive - where a 75 basis point raise is not off the table. This is not conducive for higher stock market prices in the near-term
Core PCE Rises 4.9%… But Is it Peaking?Is inflation peaking? If we knew the answer to that question - markets would be in a very different place.
The problem is - we cannot know for sure. However, there are positive developments...
Why The “Fed Put” is a Lot LowerForget about a Fed Put at 3800 - I think it's a lot lower. Fundamentally and technically I construct a case where the S&P 500 could easily trade 3500 this year. And if so - I would be a strong buyer for the long-term.
