Rate Hike History Lesson: Bottoming is a ProcessWith the Fed set to raise rates as much as seven times this year - how safe is it to meaningfully increase your exposure to stocks Is there more downside to come? And is the bottom for 2022 now in? These questions (among others) are top of mind for most readers.
Is this Near-Term Rally the ‘Real Deal’?This market has a '2007 feeling' about it. October 2007 to be precise. Approx. 15 years ago, markets were setting new record highs (up ~50% over 3 years) however the bond market was telling us something else.
Powell Reiterates ‘Price Stability’ Risk Fed Chairman Jay Powell has two very difficult choices. On the one hand - the Fed must do "all that it takes" to fight damaging persistent high inflation - where CPI could exceed 10% over the next few months. On the other - failure to address these risks pose a much larger threat to the economy.
Relief Rally as Powell Delivers 7 Rate Hikes for ’22Make no mistake - this was a hawkish Fed. Seven rate hikes this year is on the more aggressive side - but overdue. Powell adding the Fed are willing to move above neutral over the next two years... but stocks rallied on the news.
What Typically Happens after Rate Rises?This post looks at how equities have reacted over the past 40 years to the initial rate rise from the Fed. In short, markets generally react positively to the first rate hikes... averaging more than 6% gains in the first 6 months.
Powell Less Hawkish… Threading a Fine NeedleThe Fed assured investors today that they will only raise rates 25 bps in March. However, they remain well 'behind the curve' on inflation... which could prove costly
The #1 Question for Investors by Year’s EndFrom mine, there is one question investors need to ask themselves this year: where will the US 10-year finish the year?
Market’s Litmus Test is the Next 2-3 WeeksMarket needs to close back above the 35-week EMA 4100 appears to be a line-in-sand S&P 500 as “cheap” as we”ve seen in 2 years at 4220 Major U.S. indices staged a massive rip-for-face-off rally the past two days. Short-traders…
10-Yr Yield Surges on Jobs… 6 Rate Hikes for ’22?Facebook taketh away; and Amazon giveth S&P recovers but more work required 10-year yield surges above 1.90% on growth outlook It was a topsy turvy week – however the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished their best week of the year so…
Fasten Your Seat Belts…Get ready for a lot more volatility. In short, "more Fed will equal more vol". Rate hikes are coming... only question is how many and how fast...
