2022 will be remembered as an important turning point. Not because the S&P 500 surrendered 15% to 20%… it will be remembered for the tectonic shift in monetary policy. For the first time in over a decade – interest rates are finally trading at closer to “normal levels”. What’s more, we are not going back to 0% to 2.0% rates for a long time. And that has many implications for how to choose to invest…
Macro / Economy
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A Textbook Reversal
We’ve experienced a 16% rally off the October lows. And it’s happened in short time. Why? Traders see a far more dovish Fed on much lower inflation / coupled with a mild recession. I’m not buying it… not yet.
My Hypothesis into Year End
I have four key hypothesis into how I am positioned for year end: (i) 2023 will bring a recession; (ii) earnings will contract; (iii) multiples will compress; and (iv) it’s premature to think about fighting the Fed. Let’s explore…