Category MSFT

NVDA Valuation Analysis: AI Capex, Free Cash Flow, and Market Reality NVDA Valuation Analysis: AI Capex, Free Cash Flow, and Market Reality

NVDA Valuation Analysis: AI Capex, Free Cash Flow, and Market Reality

Markets are shifting from AI euphoria to demanding real cash flow. Private credit cracks, circular AI financing, and stretched valuations are raising hard questions about sustainability. As growth slows and multiples compress, 2026 is shaping up to be a true “show me the money” year for investors.

The AI Red Queen Race: Why Massive Capex and Market Cycles Signal a Rotation to Value The AI Red Queen Race: Why Massive Capex and Market Cycles Signal a Rotation to Value

The AI Red Queen Race: Why Massive Capex and Market Cycles Signal a Rotation to Value

From an index perspective, it has been a lackluster start to the year. At the time of writing, markets have made very little ground over the first 6 weeks. The good news – it”s still early. However, given the incredible…

The FOMO Trap: Why a 40x CAPE Ratio Guarantees a Decade of Lost Returns The FOMO Trap: Why a 40x CAPE Ratio Guarantees a Decade of Lost Returns

The FOMO Trap: Why a 40x CAPE Ratio Guarantees a Decade of Lost Returns

It’s very tempting to chase AI and "Mag 7" gains, but your long-term returns are ultimately determined by the price you pay. With the S&P 500 trading near 25x forward earnings and the Shiller CAPE ratio flashing warnings similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble, the market is lofty territory. History is clear: investing at such elevated valuations drastically lowers subsequent 5 and 25-year returns. While FOMO is powerful, be cautious. As a long-term investor, focus on the risk of what you could lose, not just what you might miss

The Carry Trade Unwind: How Yen Strength and JGBs are Sinking Tech Stocks The Carry Trade Unwind: How Yen Strength and JGBs are Sinking Tech Stocks

The Carry Trade Unwind: How Yen Strength and JGBs are Sinking Tech Stocks

Enjoying the ride so far? I guess it depends on how you were positioned. Even a genius can look like an idiot if they are caught out of position. Those who had excessive exposure to tech (or chips) may not be enjoying things. Most of their 2024 gains have been wiped out.
It doesn't take long when there's a rush to the exits. On the other hand - if you pivoted into value orientated names (which traded at more reasonable multiples) - things will look more positive

AI Infrastructure ROI: Why Investors are Questioning the $1 Trillion Capex Cycle AI Infrastructure ROI: Why Investors are Questioning the $1 Trillion Capex Cycle

AI Infrastructure ROI: Why Investors are Questioning the Trillion Capex Cycle

AI investors were caught off guard this week on news of China's ChapGPT rival "DeepSeek". It's alleged DeepSeek was developed far more cost-effectively (millions vs billions) than OpenAI's ChatGPT (and similar large language models). If true (and we don't know) - this raises questions about the sustainability of current U.S. AI infrastructure investments - forecast to top $1 Trillion next year. All of a sudden - valuations for these AI stocks are being questioned.