Actionable market insights delivered weekly
Categories
AI
Asset Allocation
Big Tech
Books
Bubbles
Charlie Munger
China
Commodities
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Spending
Credit
Cycles
Debt
Discounted Cash Flow
Earnings
Economic Cycles
Employment
Equity Risk Premium
ETFs
Fed Reserve
Finding Value
Forecasting
Generative AI
Geopolicitics
Gold
Geopolicitics
Lessons
Macro/Econ
Magnificent Seven
Geopolicitics
Monetary Policy
Money Supply
Nvidia
oil
Precious Metals
Property
Quantitative Easing
Rates & Bonds
Real GDP
Real PCE
Recession
Retail Sales
Risk
S&P500
Sahms Rule
Soft Landing
Stocks
Tariffs
Trade
Trump
US 10-Year Yield
Valuations
VIX
Warren Buffett
Yield Curve
Zero Sum Game
Trump’s favorite word in the dictionary is “tariff”. In his view, it just needs a little public relations (PR) help. I don’t know about that. Personally, I’m not a fan of tariffs. Over the long-run, history has shown they do more harm to the economy vs help. Better PR won’t change that. However, in the very near-term (24-36 months) – they can be seen to add jobs and create benefits for the protected industry(s). From that lens, people are mistaken to believe they’re working (as that’s what’s visible). But what about the unseen? To help explain, I’ll draw on the timeless work of Adam Smith. The protectionist policies of today are not only reminiscent of those in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries — but are arguably worse in their complexity and scale.
Inflation x Rates = Uncertainty
The stock market could not be more optimistic. And perhaps not since the dot.com bubble of 1999 – have investors been so sure of the future. Excited by a business friendly government coming to power; lower inflation; consumers continuing to spend – what’s not to like? I can think of one thing…. valuations. If buying stocks today – you’re paying through the nose. And for me – that increases your risk.
Price vs Value
Markets could not be more optimistic about the future. We see it with consumer sentiment, spending and in the stock market. For example, the S&P 500 surged to a new record high 6090 – far exceeding the most bullish of forecasts from 12 months ago. Will analysts be equally bullish about 2025? Post Trump’s Nov 5th win – the bulls have found another gear. Trump has painted a compelling vision of a US economic resurgence built on three primary pillars: (i) lower taxes; (ii) sweeping deregulation and government reform; and (iii) an
emphasis on domestic production. Why does this have corporate America very excited?
Munger on Intelligent Investing
With markets at record highs – trading at very high valuations – I felt it was timely to revisit investing lessons from Charlie Munger. Sadly, Charlie passed away late last year – just shy of his 100th birthday. Whilst Charlie was an incredible investor – what I loved most was his ability to draw insights from many disciplines – which included the study of psychology, economics, physics, biology, history, architecture among other things. This enabled Charlie to develop a lattice of “mental models” to cut through difficult problems. Over the years, I’ve found Charlie’s insights into investing, business and life not only rare but generally correct. What’s more, they stand the test of time.
For a full list of posts from 2017…