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Consumer Resilience to be Tested
The post-pandemic resilience of the American consumer continues to show strength. October’s retail sales data indicates continued spending, especially as the holiday season approaches. This is important, as consumption comprises 70% of all U.S. GDP. Overall US retail sales rose by 0.4% from the previous month, seasonally adjusted, and increased 2.8% year-over-year unadjusted. Good news. However, the question for today is what (if any) will policy changes impact spending behavior? For example, what could be the impact of tariffs? What if we see less government handouts? How will that impact lower-income households?
The Trump Trade Stalls
Last week when assessing the surge in markets – I offered examples of how market (sector) dynamics shifted. Adding to that theme – I was not overly surprised to read how institutional investors are putting money to work. For example, Bank of America Corp.’s monthly survey of global fund managers indicates that Trump’s decisive win is perceived as a potential turning point for investment strategies. And whilst that could be true – it pays to look at history… what can we gauge from Trump 1.0 (and the impact on markets).
Time to be Greedy or Fearful?
Warren Buffett is famous for saying “be fearful when others are greedy; and be greedy when they are fearful”. Today the Oracle of Omaha sits on a record $325B in cash – a record for Buffett – and over 30% of his entire portfolio. Investor enthusiasm today is wildly optimistic about future growth and earnings post the election result. And whilst surging prices are a sign of confidence – markets are also notoriously fickle…
Red Sweep Turbocharges the Market
Trump’s decisive win last week has seen significant shifts in market sentiment. Markets are optimistic that Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation will turbocharge growth. And they might. But what implications will Trump’s policies mean for the US dollar, long-term bond yields and foreign trade? As investors, you need to evaluate both what is seen vs unseen. There will be both opportunities and challenges… however they will be very sector specific.
For a full list of posts from 2017…