Actionable market insights delivered weekly
Categories
AI
Asset Allocation
Big Tech
Books
Bubbles
Charlie Munger
China
Commodities
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Spending
Credit
Cycles
Debt
Discounted Cash Flow
Earnings
Economic Cycles
Employment
Equity Risk Premium
ETFs
Fed Reserve
Finding Value
Forecasting
Generative AI
Geopolicitics
Gold
Geopolicitics
Lessons
Macro/Econ
Magnificent Seven
Geopolicitics
Monetary Policy
Money Supply
Nvidia
oil
Precious Metals
Property
Quantitative Easing
Rates & Bonds
Real GDP
Real PCE
Recession
Retail Sales
Risk
S&P500
Sahms Rule
Soft Landing
Stocks
Tariffs
Trade
Trump
US 10-Year Yield
Valuations
VIX
Warren Buffett
Yield Curve
Relief Rally Likely to be Temporary
Despite the welcomed relief rally – stocks are not out of the woods. The uncertainty introduced from Trump has inflicted a lot of damage. Not only on the market and its earnings – but on investor, consumer and business confidence. However, the full extent of the damage will only be felt in the months (years) ahead. For example, Bankim Chadha of Deutsche Bank has reduced his target for the S&P 500 for the year, citing doubts over whether tariff policies will be abandoned before they have already driven the economy into a recession. This echoes what I said recently “we could already be in recession”
Trump Wants Lower Rates – Will He Get It?
Trump is demanding the Federal Reserve lower rates. However, Fed Reserve Chair Jay Powell – is having none of it (and nor should he). This is setting up another showdown between the President and the world’s top central banker… a repeat of what we saw in 2018. As we all know Trump is a real-estate guy. Property is a business that relies heavily on cheap money. And this is the same lens Trump is taking with respect to his growth agenda. But he may not get what he wants…
Will Common Sense Prevail?
For the past few weeks we’ve watched Trump double down on dumb. There are no winners from tariffs – only losers. Perhaps the biggest loser of all will be the US consumer… forced to pay higher prices for almost all goods. Is that the goal? From Trump’s lens – China has been “ripping the US off” for decades. Why does he think this? The President will cite the US’ ~$1T trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom… which has doubled in 5 years. But this isn’t necessarily a bad thing… here’s why
Are We Closer to a Market Bottom?
It’s very difficult to know if we’re at or close to a market bottom. They rarely occur over the space of weeks – it generally takes months. But I cannot predict when (or what) the bottom will be. However, I think the ~20% correction from the market high (6147) to the low (4834) tells me a large portion of the selling is behind us. For example, we’re now starting to see equity exposure significantly reduced and cash levels raised. This is a good sign… as there are a lot less people to sell.
For a full list of posts from 2017…