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How Buffett Built a $1.1 Trillion Cash Machine

Whilst market’s fret about slowing growth (“Ready for a Growth Scare?”) – Warren Buffett sits back with a smile. His company – Berkshire Hathaway – rallied to fresh record high this week after the company reported a record high quarterly profit. Its market value is now over $1.1 Trillion. So how did Buffett build this incredible cash machine? I’ll outline three (basic) reasons… all of which you can emulate.

Nvidia is Cheaper… But Not Cheap

Nvidia’s latest quarterly numbers were very impressive – producing 78% sales growth. They dominate the market for AI chips. A small nitpick could be the three point decline in gross margins (but that’s expected). Let’s not forget – those gross margins are still 73%. No-one else comes close in the semiconductor industry. So why would the stock tank 8.5%? Simple: expectations. The market knew that Nvidia was going to grow at revenue at least 70%+ where gross margins would be north of 70%. But growth is slowing (as they get bigger) and margins are declining (as competition starts to ramp up)

Buffett: “Often, Nothing looks Compelling”

Saturday Feb 22nd was circled on my calendar. It was the day Warren Buffett shared his annual shareholder letter. If you want to become a better long-term investor – it’s worthwhile reading every one of his 59 letters (from 1965). With respect to valuations he offered this: “We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves ‘knee-deep’ in opportunities.”

Fed Minutes: Time to Pause QT?

Four things caught my eye with yesterday’s release of the January Fed Minutes: (i) worries over tariffs and their impact on inflation; (ii) some members suggesting the fed funds rate is now close to neutral (not the majority); (iii) concerns over the pace of balance sheet reduction targets; and (iv) inflation needing to come down more before lowering rates further. Makes sense to me… But I can’t help but wonder when Powell ran a victory lap last September – whether it was premature.

For a full list of posts from 2017…