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One Big Beautiful Inflation Bill

Market speculators held their breath for the latest inflation data, betting on a “soft” reading that would pave the way for a long-awaited rate cut. With stocks at record highs, their hopes were clearly pinned on a favorable outcome. While the headline CPI number was lower than expected, the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation, which excludes food and energy, continues to creep higher. This suggests that prices for most goods and services are still on the rise. Meanwhile, a chorus of voices, including political appointees, are urging the Fed to cut rates.

Wall Street Sounds the Alarm… 

It would not surprise me to see the market give back 10–15% over the coming weeks and months. Valuations are very full and the economic data is weakening. But something to watch is the bull-steepening of the 10-yr / 3-mth yield curve from inversions. Whilst not a great timing too – generally its ‘vector’ is correct. That’s a warning – despite the Fed cutting rates.

S&P 500 Faces a Litmus Test

The labor market is clearly slowing. The “stag” in stagflation is here – what’s less clear is the “flation” component. With respect to growth – we see slowing in housing, consumer spending and now job creation. The payrolls data was nothing shy of a disaster. And whilst the headlines will report on the dismal 73,000 jobs added (well below the ~140K job additions expected) – the massive 258,000 negative revisions over May and June is cause for concern.

Powell in No Hurry to Cut Rates

You have to feel for Jay Powell. He’s in a tough spot – facing pressure from the market and the President to cut rates. However, to his credit – he can separate the noise from the signal. The Fed Chairman reiterated his narrative – signaling the need for a more cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainty. In addition, he emphasized the Fed needs to maintain credibility and independence. However, there was some dissent within the ranks…

For a full list of posts from 2017…