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Hints of Mid-2007
It’s been said that whilst history doesn’t repeat – it often rhymes. For me, 2023 offers some parallels to 2007. To be clear, things are not exactly the same (they rarely are) – however I will demonstrate some similarities. What’s more, I continue to remain long this market (with about 65% exposure). That said, if I’m correct (and I may not be) – it could raise a ‘red flag’ for 2024. Three things (1) fed monetary tightening takes between 12 and 24 months to make its full impact; (2) the economy also looked very strong into Q4 2007; and (3) sustained inverted yield curve cause recessions. In my view – the market is losing sight of the fact of how long the lag effect can be.
Do Ya Feel Lucky… Punk?
“You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, punk?” – Dirty Harry. In Callahan’s case, there might have been just one… maybe two… left in the chamber. Were you willing to take that chance? Sure, Powell delivered what the market expected. However, he reminded us there’s still more ‘lead in the Magnum 44’. The other day I shared how the market has already priced in a 60% probability for a hike in July. That probability remains unchanged after Powell gave his address. However, beyond July, the market is not expecting any. Remember – only a few weeks ago – the market felt that rate cuts were still possible this year. So… do you feel lucky?
Skip, Pause, Hike or Pivot
It’s Fed week. What will the world’s most watched central bank do? A surprise hike like Canada and Australia? Unlikely. Maybe time to hit the pause button and take a look around? That’s what markets are pricing in. Or will this be a ‘hawkish skip’ implying their work is not yet done? From mine, if we see Core CPI anything above 5.0% this week – the Fed will tell us their work is not done. Here’s the thing: markets are trading back at levels before the Fed commenced their 500 bps of rate hikes. What’s more, we find Core PCE still above 5.0%; unemployment well below 4.0%; and wage inflation above 4.0%? What is to stop the Fed from finishing the job? Whilst they are likely to pause – there are more hikes ahead
Bulls & Bears Can Make a Solid Case
It’s fair to say this is one of the more hated stock market rallies. Why? Rarely have I seen so many caught on the wrong side of the trade. Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative. And yet the S&P 500 is up ~20% from its October low. This missive outlines both the bull and bear case. Either side can make valid arguments. This is what makes things so interesting. In short, you must have exposure to this market. However, you should do so with your eyes wide open.