Worst 6-Months to Start a Year Since 1970It's becoming increasingly likely we will see a recession next year (maybe before). And there's one thing that every recession has in common post 1950 -- aggressive Fed tightening into a slowing economy.
What Did We Learn from NIKE?NIKE's disappointing earnings today warned us a recession looms. And whilst the stock is 43% off its highs - it's not yet a buy. It's going lower.
Will Falling Commodities Help Drive Inflation Lower?Commodity prices are well off their peaks. In theory, this should lead to lower CPI in coming months. But is this more an indication of a recessionary risk? I think so...
Market Poised to Rally… But Tread CarefullyBear market bounce or market bottom? For me, it's the former. Two things: (i) we still need to see earnings revisions come down; and (ii) the market has a large technical hurdle it's yet to clear...
Bear Market Lessons… and is Property About to Plunge?Be careful of any bear market rally - they are usually quite sharp. This post looks at the numerous "10-20%" rallies we saw during 2000 and 2008... and outlines what we need to see to know the bottom "is in"
Why Markets Crash; and Why It Spells OpportunityWhy do markets crash? And how do you identify the likelihood of downside risk before it happens? And when it happens - how do you know when to get back in?
S&P 500: Zones to Start Buying for the Long-TermS&P 500 has given up ~12% in just two weeks. 11 of the past 12 weeks have seen declines.That's not something you see too often... but it is a time you should be sharpening your pencil... and getting very excited.
Fed Hints at ~3.50% by Year’s EndFor the first time since '94 - the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points. You can lock in 75 bps for July. However, they will need to do a lot more to tame unwanted inflation.
The Bear Roars… Markets Price in 75 bps HikeWhen it comes to the market - there are (a) times to make money; and (b) times not to lose money. Now is the time for the latter... the past decade was the time for the former.
20%+ Sell-Off Great News for Patient InvestorsA 20%+ sell off isn't a time to worry... quite the opposite... it's a time to get excited and to sharpen your pencils. The Fed is about to gift us a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity...
