A Cautious Market – MSFT & TSLA WarnLeading CEO's are warning of storm clouds ahead. However, recent economic data suggests near-term recession fears are over-blown. Are the Fed hiking too far too fast?
Time to Lengthen Your Time HorizonsJamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase -told the market to brace for an economic hurricane. There's weight to his comment - however it will be a great long-term buying opportunity if correct.
The Risk/Reward for EquitiesWhat's the risk/reward equation for equities? My view - the downside risks still outweigh the upside opposite a host of reasons. Let's explore...
Inflation Analysis: Identifying Peaks and Policy LagsIs inflation peaking? If we knew the answer to that question - markets would be in a very different place.
The problem is - we cannot know for sure. However, there are positive developments...
Market Still has Work to DoThe market is likely to experience a technical short-term bounce. But don't expect it to be sustained. Whilst we may have formed "a low" - I don't think it's "the low" for 2022... here's why
What Markets are Trying to Figure OutMarkets are working hard to try and calibrate a rapidly changing environment. Target and Walmart warned how things have turned sharply over the past quarter. And today it was SNAPs turn...
Why The “Fed Put” is a Lot LowerForget about a Fed Put at 3800 - I think it's a lot lower. Fundamentally and technically I construct a case where the S&P 500 could easily trade 3500 this year. And if so - I would be a strong buyer for the long-term.
Near-Term Bounce – Followed by Retest of Lows With the S&P 500 trading a smidge below 20% off its high this week... and the Nasdaq firmly in "bear market" territory... it's my view that equities represent far better risk/reward than they did earlier this year. In fact, some are as attractive as I've seen in over a decade (and why I added to select positions this week)
Bear Market Rally… For NowThe S&P 500 has lost ground 7 weeks in a row. We have not seen that since 2011. At its low - we are 20% off the high. Is this the bottom? I don't think so. Whilst I expect a near-term rally - lower lows are possible this year.
Tech Pummeled… But “Fear Index” Still LowIn three sessions - we've seen over $1 Trillion of market cap wiped off mega-cap tech names. And whilst we're closer to a bottom - where valuations of some companies are attractive - there's likely more downside yet.
