FB, GOOG and MSFT Report – What Did we Learn?This post looks at the latest results for Alphabet (Google); Facebook and Microsoft. In short, each of these stocks deserves a solid place in your long-term portfolio.
Big Tech Earnings on Tap… as Bond Yields JumpEarlier this week I said bond yields are now calling Jay Powell's bluff. My take is bonds sense higher inflation ahead (at least for next year). And as we know - 'bond markets are typically early... but generally right'...
Inflation: Here Today… Gone Tomorrow?Rates are almost certain to rise... evidenced by what we see with the 10-year yield and break-even rates.
As a result, when rates do rise, this will temper demand. However, it will do nothing to ease the supply bottlenecks across the world.
Markets Rally as Economy SlowsMarkets have a "Q4 spring" in their step. After a bit of a September swoon - the most volatile month of the year (on average) - has started well... higher prices look likely
Chinese Stocks: Ultra-High Risk… But is this Trade Worth It?Trading and investing is very much about understanding the risk vs the reward. In fact, it's far more about the former than the latter. What can potentially go wrong with this trade? How much do I stand to lose if things don't work out? Can I afford to take that risk? That's your basic equation with any investment. Gold, bonds, property, stocks... you name it. For e.g., staying in cash carries risk - as it will lose at least 5% of its value over the next 12+ months.
Jobs Disappoint (again)… But Yields RiseThere are two monthly data 'prints' (above all others) which are said to shape the Fed's timing on any imminent taper: (1) employment; and (2) inflation. Re the former - hiring in the U.S. fell far below expectations last month, with employers adding just 194,000 jobs versus the expected 500,000
Trading Per the ScriptOctober is certainly one of the more 'opportunistic' months of the year (in my view) - however it comes with a bad rap. October is a whopping 36% more volatile than the other months (on average). But don't let volatility like today scare you...
Yields Consolidate as Stocks ExhaleStocks caught a small bid as bargain hunters started to sniff around. That's expected after a few days of selling. Yesterday I suggested that yields would likely consolidate after a furious run - and this is what we saw. The 10-year bond yield pulled back to 1.46% - down 9 basis points from yesterday's 1.55%.
Trading the PullbackSeptember has a reputation of being a bad one for investors. This month didn't disappoint! It was the worst month since March 2020. You can pick your poison as to why... but I honestly think this is the case of the market getting ahead of itself...
10-Year Bond Yields Jump… Sectors to AvoidKeep your eye on bond yields. The US 10-year was up 19 bps as bond investors started to price is stickier inflation - and the possibility of the Fed being forced to move sooner than expected. Yep... lock it in
