by adrian tout | Sep 26, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Recession, Yield Curve
Recession risks should not be ruled out Bond markets continue to ask questions… why are 10-yr yields rising? Deficit spending at ~7% of GDP is unprecedented during economic expansions My last post was titled “Time to Forget About Recession Risks”...
by adrian tout | Sep 21, 2024 | Employment, Interest Rates / Bonds, Recession, Risk
‘Bond King’ Jeff Gundlach believes we’re already in recession However, equities tell us ‘recession is no longer a risk Fed cut rates because ‘they can’ vs being ‘forced’ (or did they?) “I still think the history books...
by adrian tout | Sep 18, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds
Market disappointed by the dot-plot Bond yields rally on rate cut – why? Powell tried to explain the ‘pivot’ – but he may have failed “We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful...
by adrian tout | Sep 14, 2024 | Asset Allocation, Risk, S&P500
S&P 500 bounces back… double-top? Why are defensive assets handily outperforming the market? Retail sales continue to soften… “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the...
by adrian tout | Sep 9, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Real PCE, Valuations
4.2% is “full” employment – but is that where we’re going? Stocks still aren’t cheap based on low equity risk premium Why the Fed may have scope to cut (vs being forced to cut) What’s your answer to each of the following: Do we have...
