by adrian tout | Aug 5, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, Investing Lessons, S&P500
An Index trade capitalizing on a very high VIX Unpacking the 10% Index correction – more to go or time to buy? Japanese Yen: Carry in and carry out (on a stretcher) Wall Street is driven by just two emotions: fear and greed. Pending on the degree to which you...
by adrian tout | Aug 3, 2024 | Cycles, Investing Lessons
Two lessons on what not to do from TV’s most famous stock picker Did Buffett just ring the bell on Apple at 32x forward earnings? A framework to help assess whether buying (or selling) is a good idea Yesterday’s post talked about how I don’t try and...
by adrian tout | Aug 2, 2024 | Asset Allocation, Employment, Interest Rates / Bonds, Real PCE, Recession, Sahms Rule
A “recession like” reaction in the bond market Two tech stocks I traded today (and how) And why I think there’s more downside to come for the S&P 500 As a preface, I will start with something I shared only two weeks ago – July 20: I made a...
by adrian tout | Jul 31, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds
Markets see three rate cuts before 2025 Watch for the (coming) un-inversion of the yield curve Why investors should consider selling the ‘long-end’ and buying the ‘short-end’ Today Fed Chair Powell delivered precisely what the market wanted to...
by adrian tout | Jul 26, 2024 | Inflation, Investing Lessons, Real PCE, Soft Landing
Real PCE – the most reliable leading economic indicator – rises YoY ‘Yellow flags’ with savings rate and rising credit delinquencies Keeping a close eye on real wages (which drives spending) The market received three important data points this...
