by adrian tout | Jul 9, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Forecasting, Real GDP, Real PCE, Recession, Risk
Why (real) consumer spending holds the key Powell positions the market for rate cuts this year Examining Real PCE trends from 2007 against stock market declines Jay Powell reassured Congress today that the economy remains in ‘robust’ shape. However it came...
by adrian tout | Jul 5, 2024 | Cycles, Earnings, Employment, Fed Reserve, Lessons, Recession, Sahms Rule, Soft Landing
Nothing ‘strong’ about June jobs report as bond yields drop We can now pencil in a 25 bps rate cut for Sept or Nov Employment is weakening – pay attention to Sahm’s Rule The much awaited June jobs report hit the tape today. Here’s...
by adrian tout | Jul 4, 2024 | Books, Earnings, Investing Lessons, Recession, S&P500, Soft Landing
Most expect a soft landing – so why worry? A framework for forecasting slowdowns and the market direction Looking back at lessons from 2000/02 Optimism remains extremely high on Wall Street. For example, if we assume: Inflation is likely to continue falling...
by adrian tout | Jun 29, 2024 | Lessons, Macro / Economy, S&P500, Valuations
Why consumer spend holds the key to forecasting the economy More companies cite a more ‘selective’ or ‘cautious’ consumer Understanding the 4 stages in the market cycle… Yesterday I shared the most recent year-end analyst forecasts for...
by adrian tout | Jun 28, 2024 | Investing Lessons, S&P500
Nike: Just Do It? Or Just Not? Lessons from Homer’s ‘The Odyssey’ Not all analysts rush to raise their year end targets. Is the market overconfident? Does it only see upside? What weight does it assign to the risks? And are the ‘sirens’...
