by adrian tout | Mar 21, 2025 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Recession, S&P500
Words: 1,423 Time: 6 Minutes Retailers continue to warn of slowing sales If earnings fall – what does that do to valuations? Fed not worried about inflation – but they’re concerned about growth February 15th I asked this question: “Ready for a...
by adrian tout | Mar 14, 2025 | Consumer Confidence, Consumer Spending, Real PCE, S&P500
Words: 1,119 Time: 5 Minutes Confidence falls off a cliff… I wonder why? Keep your eye on the quarterly YoY change in Real PCE Stocks caught a bid – but not much has changed It was a roller-coaster week for stocks… maybe a hint of things to come? As...
by adrian tout | Mar 11, 2025 | Carry Trade, Japanese Bonds, MSFT, USD/JPY
Words: 1,134 Time: 6 Minutes Japanese Government Bonds roar higher on inflation A close correlation between MSFT and the ‘carry trade’ How I hedged coming into 2025… Enjoying the ride so far? I guess it depends on how you were positioned. Even a...
by adrian tout | Mar 10, 2025 | QQQ, Recession, S&P500, VIX
Words: 1,705 Time: 8 Minutes VIX touches 29 – but no signs of panic yet Trump says there will be some “disruption” QQQ – areas which look attractive Fasten your seatbelts – things could get bumpy. I will share charts for both the S&P...
by adrian tout | Mar 7, 2025 | Fed Reserve, Monetary policy, S&P500, Tariffs, Uncategorized
Words: 2,096 Time: 9 Minutes Powell says wait for the signal to emerge from the noise Why Trump’s inward looking trade policies are not the key to growth Waiting for a ‘washout’ in stocks – where investors start to panic As an investor – it’s...
