by adrian tout | Oct 11, 2024 | Fed Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates / Bonds
Core (services) remains stubbornly high due to wage growth Ignore any noisy jobless claims due to hurricanes and strikes Fed to go only 25 (best case) in November In a perfect world, inflation should be boring. Boring is good. However, when you inject an additional...
by adrian tout | Oct 9, 2024 | China, Debt, Investing Lessons
Words: 1665; Reading Time: 7 Mins Why the rally in Chinese stocks fizzled Short-term growth or long-term stability? China stocks are investable… with a caveat The recent rally of over 25% in Chinese was something we’ve not seen in over a decade… For...
by adrian tout | Oct 8, 2024 | Investing Lessons, Middle East, Real GDP, VIX
Words: 1036; Reading Time: 5 Mins Geopolitical risks rising, but impact remains contained (for now) The market’s tug of war between conflicting signals Continue to maintain long exposure despite volatility In my experience – growth ultimately defies fear....
by adrian tout | Oct 5, 2024 | Employment, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates / Bonds, S&P500
Economic data deviates from expectations Manufacturing sector lacking incentives to invest 254K monthly job additions masks weakness w/full-time jobs It was a good week for stocks – buoyed by a strong monthly jobs print. However one hot night doesn’t make...
by adrian tout | Sep 28, 2024 | Bubbles, Fed Reserve, Market History
Are we set up to echo the ‘melt up’ of the mid-to-late 90’s? S&P 500 could be emboldened by a much easier Fed Ensure you don’t get caught paying too much for stocks Are stocks headed for a melt-up with the Fed set to ease rates over the...
