Things Trading Per the ScriptForecasting the direction of the stock market day-to-day / week-to-week is very hard to do. In fact, it's near impossible. That said, over the past 6 months or so I feel things have traded largely 'per the script'... so what's next?
‘Buy the Dip’ or ‘Sell the Rip’?At the start of the year - I said expect a 10-15% sell off in the first half of the year. This is now playing out... but there could be more to come. Do you buy the dip... or sell the rip?
S&P 500 Down ~9% in 3 Weeks… That’s a Good ThingTo start the year - I was looking for a 10-15% type correction. And if we were lucky enough to see that - it would be a great opportunity to pick up share in quality companies which are profitable; and/or have strong free cash flow. Today you had this opportunity and it's exactly what I did.
Tech Sell-Off Not Finished Yet109 of the S&P 500 stocks are now 20% off their highs. But I think there's much more to come... you need to stay patient here.
Earnings: Will Value Outperform Tech?Money has been rotating from growth names into 'value' (i.e. those that pay dividends; have predictable cash flow and trade at lower multiples).
Stocks Rebound… With “Big Tech” UpgradedAre the lows in before Christmas That's hard to know. Stocks have rallied strongly to start the week after last week's ~5.2% pullback. It's been 'higher-risk' names leading the rebound... with the Russell 2000 and tech surging.
Turbulent Times AheadCPI is expected to jump above the annual pace of 6.2%... the hottest in 30 years. Makes sense to me - the Fed has expanding its balance sheet to $9T and real rates remain negative - why wouldn't we see inflation? It's going higher.
Big Tech Breaks Out… Two More Quality Stocks to WatchTwo recent additions to my portfolio are up 16.2% and 14.5% respectively... but I think there's a lot more to go. My largest portfolio position - Google - is up over 65% this year. Google has probably been the stand-out performer of the 5 for 2021...
“Bits vs Bytes” for Big Tech EarningsThe collective market caps of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Apple are north of ~$9 Trillion. To put that into perspective, the entire sum of the S&P 500 is ~$38 Trillion; FMAGA is ~24% of the entire market.
FB, GOOG and MSFT Report – What Did we Learn?This post looks at the latest results for Alphabet (Google); Facebook and Microsoft. In short, each of these stocks deserves a solid place in your long-term portfolio.
