Fed Gets another ‘Green Light’
September's strong jobs report gave the Fed more scope to continue with their aggressive rate hikes. Unfortunate a Fed "green light" is a stock "red light"
Category Fed Reserve
Tread Carefully…
The two biggest headwinds facing stocks are higher rates (bond yields) and the US dollar index. Both are yet to peak or show signs of a downward trend. And until they do - we can't call a bottom in equities.
Forget Stocks… It’s All About Bond Yields
Where bonds go - so go equities. As bond yields surge to new highs - with the 2-year yield now well above 4.0% - stocks are almost certain to trade lower.
The Only Way is Up
Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality...
Markets Waking Up to Fed Reality
The market continued to work its way lower this week - waking up to the reality of the road ahead with respect to higher rates and inflation. However, some believe the Fed should pause immediately...
Fed Faces a Long Fight with Sticky Inflation
CPI and Core PCE continued to rise over August. Core PCE - the Fed's preferred measure - was more than double expectations and 3x the Fed's target rate. Rates are to remain higher for longer.
Wage Growth of 5.2% to Strengthen Fed’s Resolve
The US economy added 315K jobs in August. Good news. However, wage inflation ripped higher at 5.2% YoY. Based on this, it's likely the Fed will continue with a period of 'unusually high' rate hikes to reduce demand and wage inflation.
August Wasn’t Kind… Don’t Expect Sept to be Better
August wasn't kind for stocks - with the S&P 500 losing 4.2%. The market is now just 8.8% off the June 3636 low... expect this to be retested
The Case for Retesting the June Lows
It would be remiss of investors to rule out a retest of the June lows. This post explains my reasons not just technically (which has served us well) -- but more so fundamentally. Have we fully priced in the impact of where rates are likely to head in addition to QT?
Powell Delivers a Blunt Message
If it wasn't already clear - it is now. Interest rates are going sharply higher and for longer. Powell's 8-minute Jackson Hole speech was carefully scripted - using words like "pain" to prepare the market for what lies ahead.