Category Forecasting

How Far Will Multiple Expansion Take Us?

Earnings per share growth has averaged 8.3% pa from 2015 through today. However, capital appreciation in stocks (exclduing dividends) has seen a CAGR of 11.0% over the same 10-year period. This divergence is widening which indicates multiple expansion. From mine, investors should be braced for mean reversion.

Here Come the Foolish Forecasts

Once again, it's that time of year. Investment houses are set to release their forecasts for the upcoming year. Why they bother I don't know? And whilst there is still approx one month to go - if the markets finish anywhere near 5,800 - most forecasts made for 2024 will be abysmal. The average end-of-year forecast for 2024 was ~4600. The closest looks like being Ed Yardeni - who forecast 5400 - however at the time appeared wildly bullish. Well done Ed.J.P. Morgan told their clients we would finish 2024 around 4200 - currently more than 40% off the mark.... could it get any worse? So what do you think they will tell us for 2025? My guess "up in the realm of ~8%". Why? Because that's the 100-year average.

Cycles: Your Advantage over the Average Investor

I made a decision to reduce my exposure to large-cap tech a few months ago. The decision wasn't an easy one... these are great stocks. For example, did I sell prematurely? The answer will be more obvious in 6-12 months when the cycle has had sufficient time to play out. For now (as was the case when I sold) - I think the downside risks meaningfully outweighed further upside gains. In this post, I explained how selling is a way of managing your risk. I was ensuring I banked the appreciable gains realized over the past few years. In light of the rotation out large-cap tech we've seen this week - I thought it was opportune to share some thoughts on (a) how I calibrate my portfolio in a changing environment; and (b) when to be aggressive and when to play defense. It all comes back to understand the economic cycle...

Real PCE: Seeing Around Corners

As an investor, your job is to carefully assess the risks against the rewards. A large part of that equation is knowing exactly where we are in the business cycle. For example, consider the following questions: (a) do you think we're at the beginning or middle of an economic advance (with more to go)? or (b) do you think we're about to encounter a significant change in direction? and (c) if so, is that change for the better or for the worse? Your answer is very important. It's far better to invest (or take more risk) at the start of the business cycle vs the end. Therefore, how will make that decision? How are you able to determine where we are? I will offer a market signal which is arguably more consistent and reliable than most indicators.

Are These Recession Indicators Broken?

At the conclusion of their July 26 '23, meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50%. The S&P 500 traded around 4,000 points at the time - some 16% off its ~4800 January high. Markets had reason to be worried... Investors had not seen the Fed this aggressive at any time in the past 40 years... and conditions seemed ripe for a recession. What's more, most widely cited indicators suggested this was a likely outcome. However, it didn't happen? Why not? Are popular recession indicators no longer relevant?

Weighing Risk(s) More Useful than Forecasting a Number

Around this time of year - a wrath of 'experts' forecast where they believe the S&P 500 will finish the year. For me it serves little purpose. For one, most of the time forecasts are typically wrong (and by a wide margin). Second, as time goes by, more information will come to hand which often changes our view. From there, forecasts should be updated. Third, there are almost always random events which reset the game. What happens to forecasts then? They are typically tossed out the window. With that, let's look at what the market "experts" believe we will see this year - and I will offer my approach.