It’s very difficult to know if we’re at or close to a market bottom. They rarely occur over the space of weeks – it generally takes months. But I cannot predict when (or what) the bottom will be. However, I think the ~20% correction from the market high (6147) to the low (4834) tells me a large portion of the selling is behind us. For example, we’re now starting to see equity exposure significantly reduced and cash levels raised. This is a good sign… as there are a lot less people to sell.
Interest Rates / Bonds
Actionable market insights delivered to your inbox weekly
Fed Minutes: Time to Pause QT?
Four things caught my eye with yesterday’s release of the January Fed Minutes: (i) worries over tariffs and their impact on inflation; (ii) some members suggesting the fed funds rate is now close to neutral (not the majority); (iii) concerns over the pace of balance sheet reduction targets; and (iv) inflation needing to come down more before lowering rates further. Makes sense to me… But I can’t help but wonder when Powell ran a victory lap last September – whether it was premature.
The Key to Growth: Business Investment
With 10-year yields trading around 4.50% (with the possibility to go higher) – why haven’t equities sharply corrected? It’s a good question. For e.g., on the surface, one might think equities would struggle given the zero risk premium investors are receiving. But that has not been the case. The stock market has withstood the sharp rise in bond yields (for now anyway). However, I believe there is a simple explanation. It’s the amount of liquidity in the system. Liquidity is abundant – evidenced by the very low credit spreads in the market (participants see very little risk). Generally credit spreads widening are your first sign of trouble.