My Hypothesis into Year EndI have four key hypothesis into how I am positioned for year end: (i) 2023 will bring a recession; (ii) earnings will contract; (iii) multiples will compress; and (iv) it's premature to think about fighting the Fed. Let's explore...
Jamie Dimon: “This is Serious”The CEO of the US' largest bank by assets - Jamie Dimon - has sent another warning. 'This is serious' he said... warning of perhaps up to 20% further downside and a recession in 2023...
Stay Patient – Pullback ComingWhen prices are rising (as they are today) in a bear market -- all too often sentiment will shift prematurely. It's called a bear-market trap. And I think this is what we are seeing...
Risk On? Or Classic Bear Trap?The S&P 500 is up 14% from its June lows. But from mine, this is still a bear market rally. The Fed is far from done.
Bear Market Rally? Or ‘the’ Bottom for 2022?Some feel the bottom could be in for 2022. They might be right. Who knows? Sentiment has not been this negative since 2008. However, I think probabilities still favour lower lows.
Worst 6-Months to Start a Year Since 1970It's becoming increasingly likely we will see a recession next year (maybe before). And there's one thing that every recession has in common post 1950 -- aggressive Fed tightening into a slowing economy.
S&P 500: Zones to Start Buying for the Long-TermS&P 500 has given up ~12% in just two weeks. 11 of the past 12 weeks have seen declines.That's not something you see too often... but it is a time you should be sharpening your pencil... and getting very excited.
Bear Market Rally… For NowThe S&P 500 has lost ground 7 weeks in a row. We have not seen that since 2011. At its low - we are 20% off the high. Is this the bottom? I don't think so. Whilst I expect a near-term rally - lower lows are possible this year.
Stocks are Yet to Experience a Solid ‘Flush’At the start of this month we were talking about April's strong historical record. But as we know, records mean nothing. This month was brutal especially for the Nasdaq. It posted its worst monthly performance since 2008.
Wall St. Cut Expectations for 2022Stocks finished 2021 on a high. What's more, most analysts had modest expectations for more gains in 2022. 90 days later and the world has changed. Never before (in my 25 years following markets) have I seen such a broad range of outcomes. But as we wrapped 2021... I felt returns this year would be 'single digit' at best.
