JP Morgan Warns of ‘Negative Consequences’There's a very good reason why inflation is likely to come down next year... the dramatic slowing of (M2) money supply growth. However, we will have uncomfortably high inflation for at least 6-9 months yet.
Negative Impact of Labor Costs on EarningsThere are three things I want to see before I utter the words "the bottom is in". One of those three are Q3 earnings revisions... they are coming and this is one big reason why...
Sell this Bounce… and Why NZ is Worth WatchingWe are in the midst of a bear market rally - but I don't trust it for three reasons. Separately, is New Zealand a canary in the coal mine regarding the impact of raising interest rates?
Recession: The ‘Cost’ of Unwanted InflationToday the Fed reminded us they have one objective (and only one): to bring inflation back to its target level of 2.0%. However, the unspoken narrative was sacrifices will need to be made (i.e. expect a recession)
Here’s What We Still Need to SeeThere are three primary things we still need to see before we can confidently claim we are close to a market bottom in 2022... the first is a pivot from the Fed.
Worst 6-Months to Start a Year Since 1970It's becoming increasingly likely we will see a recession next year (maybe before). And there's one thing that every recession has in common post 1950 -- aggressive Fed tightening into a slowing economy.
What Did We Learn from NIKE?NIKE's disappointing earnings today warned us a recession looms. And whilst the stock is 43% off its highs - it's not yet a buy. It's going lower.
Market Poised to Rally… But Tread CarefullyBear market bounce or market bottom? For me, it's the former. Two things: (i) we still need to see earnings revisions come down; and (ii) the market has a large technical hurdle it's yet to clear...
We Haven’t Seen the Lows for 2022Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) continues to run at a 41-year high 8.6%. It's not hard to explain - look no further than monetary and fiscal policy. From mine, the Fed has no choice but to remain very aggressive - where a 75 basis point raise is not off the table. This is not conducive for higher stock market prices in the near-term
Don’t Be Fooled…CPI for May is expected to come in at a red-hot 8.2%. Anything north of 8% will not change the Fed's aggressive stance. In short, inflation is not likely to go away soon... look no further than energy and food prices. Here's why the Fed will hike straight into a recession.
