Bear Market Bounce… Then Down Post EarningsThis market narrative is very much "fire" and "ice" - according to Mike Wilson at MS. "Fire" from the Fed on inflation; and "ice" in terms of lower earnings...
A Cautious Market – MSFT & TSLA WarnLeading CEO's are warning of storm clouds ahead. However, recent economic data suggests near-term recession fears are over-blown. Are the Fed hiking too far too fast?
The Risk/Reward for EquitiesWhat's the risk/reward equation for equities? My view - the downside risks still outweigh the upside opposite a host of reasons. Let's explore...
What Markets are Trying to Figure OutMarkets are working hard to try and calibrate a rapidly changing environment. Target and Walmart warned how things have turned sharply over the past quarter. And today it was SNAPs turn...
M2 Money Supply Still Far Too High Heading into the Fed decision - some feared we could see a 75 basis point rise. However, Jay Powell soon put those fears to rest. But the relief didn't last long... the 10-year treasury ripped above 3% as the market digested what a combination of (far) higher nominal rates.
CPI Hits 8.5% – Highest Since 1981Consumer price inflation (CPI) for March hit its highest level since 1981 - a staggering 8.5%. Core CPI — which excludes food and energy prices —was up 6.5% YoY. Troubling numbers...especially for average earning Americans who are now spending $5K per year more just on gas and food.
Market Forecasting: The Futility of Short-Term PredictionsForecasting the direction of the stock market day-to-day / week-to-week is very hard to do. In fact, it's near impossible. That said, over the past 6 months or so I feel things have traded largely 'per the script'... so what's next?
What ‘Shock’ Will 2022 Deliver?Bank of America's top strategist Michael Hartnett issued this note today: "Inflation shock is worsening; rate shock is beginning; and recession shock is coming". Let's explore...
Is this Near-Term Rally the ‘Real Deal’?This market has a '2007 feeling' about it. October 2007 to be precise. Approx. 15 years ago, markets were setting new record highs (up ~50% over 3 years) however the bond market was telling us something else.
Markets Searching for a BottomMarkets continue to grind lower faced with increasing uncertainty. Risks to inflation, Fed policy and the conflict with Russia and Ukraine remain at the top of list. How long before we see earnings revisions lower? That's likely to come...
