Nothing Changes after Today’s Surge HigherMarket staged their best day in 2 years... with the Nasdaq up 3.6%. For now, this smells like a bear-market rally. We need to see more to add conviction the bottom is in for 2022...
Market’s Litmus Test is the Next 2-3 WeeksMarket needs to close back above the 35-week EMA 4100 appears to be a line-in-sand S&P 500 as “cheap” as we”ve seen in 2 years at 4220 Major U.S. indices staged a massive rip-for-face-off rally the past two days. Short-traders…
Stunning Intraday Reversal… What Does It Mean?Short covering rally? Or genuine buyers? Why aren”t bonds catching a bid on Ukraine? Real 10-Yr Yields highlight the inflation problem Before trade opened today – Dow Futures were down some 800 points. The unprovoked attack on Ukraine from Russia…
Wars Typically Bring OpportunityAnother high-quality stock for your watchlist Why the Fed should stay the course irrespective of Russia I”ll take a recession over out-of-control inflation A lot has happened since I last penned a missive. Tensions with Russia seemed to have escalated… …
Dow’s Worst Day for 2022Volatility here to stay PPI hits 9.7% Year-on-Year Why the Fed will be on the “front foot” in March 2021 will be remembered for its unusual lack of volatility. Markets offered traders only two pullbacks which barely hit 5%. 2022 is…
Thoughts on ’22 with 5 ChartsThis post looks at what I think will be the most important (or influential) charts for this year. Spoiler alert: much of this centers on crude oil, inflation, rates and of course the Fed...
When Will the Next Recession Hit?The market is afflicting the comfortable... and discomforting the afflicted. What felt like a relief rally Wednesday abruptly turned negative to end the week....
Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap SpreadsMarkets continue to climb the so-called 'wall of worry'. The S&P 500 put in its first negative week since the week ending Sept 17th. From mine, I think the market finds technical resistance around this zone (e.g. 4700 to 4800).
Markets Rally as Economy SlowsMarkets have a "Q4 spring" in their step. After a bit of a September swoon - the most volatile month of the year (on average) - has started well... higher prices look likely
Jobs Disappoint (again)… But Yields RiseThere are two monthly data 'prints' (above all others) which are said to shape the Fed's timing on any imminent taper: (1) employment; and (2) inflation. Re the former - hiring in the U.S. fell far below expectations last month, with employers adding just 194,000 jobs versus the expected 500,000
