Category Market History

Near-Term Bounce – Followed by Retest of Lows 

With the S&P 500 trading a smidge below 20% off its high this week... and the Nasdaq firmly in "bear market" territory... it's my view that equities represent far better risk/reward than they did earlier this year. In fact, some are as attractive as I've seen in over a decade (and why I added to select positions this week)

Wall St. Cut Expectations for 2022

Stocks finished 2021 on a high. What's more, most analysts had modest expectations for more gains in 2022. 90 days later and the world has changed. Never before (in my 25 years following markets) have I seen such a broad range of outcomes. But as we wrapped 2021... I felt returns this year would be 'single digit' at best.

Rate Hike History Lesson: Bottoming is a Process

With the Fed set to raise rates as much as seven times this year - how safe is it to meaningfully increase your exposure to stocks Is there more downside to come? And is the bottom for 2022 now in? These questions (among others) are top of mind for most readers.

Is this Near-Term Rally the ‘Real Deal’?

This market has a '2007 feeling' about it. October 2007 to be precise. Approx. 15 years ago, markets were setting new record highs (up ~50% over 3 years) however the bond market was telling us something else.

Why It Makes Sense to Buy “Peak Fear”

This post examines the annual returns on the S&P 500 if buying when the VIX hits (a) 35 and (b) 45 (i.e. peak fear). In summary, it pays the buy when everyone is selling....

Markets Searching for a Bottom

Markets continue to grind lower faced with increasing uncertainty. Risks to inflation, Fed policy and the conflict with Russia and Ukraine remain at the top of list. How long before we see earnings revisions lower? That's likely to come...

Berkshire: The Power of Compounded Returns

Warren Buffett's investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway has posted an Compound Average Growth Rate of 20.1% for 57 years. This dwarfs the S&P 500 average of 10.5% inclusive of dividends.

Stocks Worst Month Since March 2020

Typically if the market turns in a negative return for January - there is an 87% probability the calendar year will also show negative returns.

Ready to Buy the Dip?

Of late, investors focused on risks surrounding unwanted inflation, central bank tightening and supply-chain snarls. The VIX lingered below 15 - a sign of complacency and what I felt was over-confidence. Overnight that changed...