Stocks Losing MomentumAre stocks starting to lose momentum? This week saw the S&P 500 reverse course - its first losing week since early September. Could there be more to come? My answer is yes - perhaps as much as 7-10%. However, it's a question of timing. Irrespective, paying 22x forward earnings is a higher-risk bet.
The Fiscal Tailwinds Helping StocksWill fewer rate cuts dampen the enthusiasm for stocks? It certainly hasn't to this point. And could higher bond yields impact stock valuations? So far the market is not bothered. These (and other) questions need to be weighed carefully with the S&P 500 trading ~21.5x forward earnings. And whilst the multiple is heavily skewed by the 'Mag 7' - 21.5x is far from cheap. What's more, from a historical perspective, paying a multiple above 20x offers investors a very low risk premium (e.g., with the risk free rate above 4.0%). But wait... what's to say stocks cannot rise further? We'll explore why they can...
Money Supply is Expanding: Fuel for StocksWhen the supply of money expands - it's typically very good for stocks. For example, the S&P 500 index is said to appreciate at an average annualized pace of 14.02% when liquidity expands. However, when it contracts, that gain was only around 7.0%. Today money supply is once again expanding after one of the largest contractions in recent history. This has the potential to be very good for investors. As they say, it's always easier swimming with the tide.
Where Do We Go From Here?Major averages pulled back this week on fears rates could remain higher for longer. Makes sense - with the US 10-year above 4.25% - that's a reasonable assumption. But here's the thing: get used to it. Whilst rates might feel 'tighter'... rates are still not historically high. Not even close. What was not normal was rates being artificially suppressed to near zero for 15 years. And that might prove to be a difficult adjustment for some people. So where to from here? The honest answer is none of us know. What follows are some of the assumptions being made; and perhaps gaps in the market's thinking... it starts by asking quality questions.
Excess Liquidity Still Present Many people seem puzzled as to why the market continues to trade higher. For example, some readers have told me they missed the rally - wondering why things have not completely unravelled sooner. They've chosen to sit things out for one reason or another. And that makes sense... I'm sure they are not alone. Why are markets defying gravity? And how long could it continue? The short answer for a while yet. And the driver is liquidity.
