Never underestimate the U.S. consumers want to spend. Well some of them at least. Last month’s retail figures exceeded expectations – up 1.7% YoY in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation). But here’s the important point – these are nominal sales and only one month of data. One month is not overly helpful. When averaged over one quarter (which helps remove noise) – adjusted for inflation ( real terms) – and assessing the year-over-year change – growth is negative. And they have been negative in real terms for 9 straight quarters… this matters.
Valuations
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The Fiscal Tailwinds Helping Stocks
Will fewer rate cuts dampen the enthusiasm for stocks? It certainly hasn’t to this point. And could higher bond yields impact stock valuations? So far the market is not bothered. These (and other) questions need to be weighed carefully with the S&P 500 trading ~21.5x forward earnings. And whilst the multiple is heavily skewed by the ‘Mag 7’ – 21.5x is far from cheap. What’s more, from a historical perspective, paying a multiple above 20x offers investors a very low risk premium (e.g., with the risk free rate above 4.0%). But wait… what’s to say stocks cannot rise further? We’ll explore why they can…
Don’t Bet on 50 Bps for Sept.
Do we have a ‘good, solid’ economy or one that’s at risk of a recession? Is the employment market robust or one that’s slowing sharply? Should the Fed cut 50 basis points or 25? And if 50… why? These are not easy questions to answer – as you can make the case either way (pending your lens). Regardless, the popular narrative is one favoring a soft-landing. Jay Powell echoed this sentiment with a victory lap at Jackson Hole. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen supported this thesis over the weekend…