Category Macro & Cycles

Market Cycle Analysis: Mean Reversion to Identify Opportunity and Risk Market Cycle Analysis: Mean Reversion to Identify Opportunity and Risk

Market Cycle Analysis: Mean Reversion to Identify Opportunity and Risk

I made a decision to reduce my exposure to large-cap tech a few months ago. The decision wasn't an easy one... these are great stocks. For example, did I sell prematurely? The answer will be more obvious in 6-12 months when the cycle has had sufficient time to play out. For now (as was the case when I sold) - I think the downside risks meaningfully outweighed further upside gains. In this post, I explained how selling is a way of managing your risk. I was ensuring I banked the appreciable gains realized over the past few years. In light of the rotation out large-cap tech we've seen this week - I thought it was opportune to share some thoughts on (a) how I calibrate my portfolio in a changing environment; and (b) when to be aggressive and when to play defense. It all comes back to understand the economic cycle...

Inflation Analysis: Identifying Peaks and Policy Lags Inflation Analysis: Identifying Peaks and Policy Lags

Inflation Analysis: Identifying Peaks and Policy Lags

Is inflation peaking? If we knew the answer to that question - markets would be in a very different place.
The problem is - we cannot know for sure. However, there are positive developments...

Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads

Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads

Markets continue to climb the so-called 'wall of worry'. The S&P 500 put in its first negative week since the week ending Sept 17th. From mine, I think the market finds technical resistance around this zone (e.g. 4700 to 4800).