Category Trade War

The TACO Trap: Why the S&P 500 Mean Reversion and the 5% Bond Yield are the Real ‘Sell in May’ The TACO Trap: Why the S&P 500 Mean Reversion and the 5% Bond Yield are the Real ‘Sell in May’

The TACO Trap: Why the S&P 500 Mean Reversion and the 5% Bond Yield are the Real ‘Sell in May’

The market is betting Trump is all bluster and no action. The acronym "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) is sure to piss the President off. Now, if the TACO trade is right, then Trump's threats will lose their power as a negotiating tactic. Therefore, on the assumption Trump believes in protectionism - he may have to follow through on some of his rhetoric. Markets seem to think that won't happen...

The $1T Trade Deficit Myth: Why Tariffs Won’t Fix the U.S.-China Economic Relationship The $1T Trade Deficit Myth: Why Tariffs Won’t Fix the U.S.-China Economic Relationship

The T Trade Deficit Myth: Why Tariffs Won’t Fix the U.S.-China Economic Relationship

For the past few weeks we've watched Trump double down on dumb. There are no winners from tariffs - only losers. Perhaps the biggest loser of all will be the US consumer... forced to pay higher prices for almost all goods. Is that the goal? From Trump's lens - China has been "ripping the US off" for decades. Why does he think this? The President will cite the US' ~$1T trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom... which has doubled in 5 years. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing... here's why