Bear Market Rally Approaching Resistance

My best guess is the current 11% bear market rally could go a little further yet (e.g. maybe 5-6%). However we are now approaching a technical area of resistance. I also offer a new trade on TLT... on the thesis that yields will reverse course at some point in 2023

‘Fed Whisperer’ Spurs Market

The rally is on... but how far can it go? I will share my thoughts. And whilst we're likely to see a short-term shift in sentiment... longer-term headwinds remain.

Short Term Rip… Then a Bigger Dip

Another bear market rally or something else? My view is the former until proven otherwise. For me, we need to see yields and the dollar peak. But in the meantime - don't be surprised to see this market add 10%+ before pulling back.

Does the Bullish Case Hold Water?

Markets tried hard to rally this week - but was met with strong selling. I lay out both the bullish and bearish case... where I favor lower prices with a S&P 500 target of 3200

Jamie Dimon: “This is Serious”

The CEO of the US' largest bank by assets - Jamie Dimon - has sent another warning. 'This is serious' he said... warning of perhaps up to 20% further downside and a recession in 2023...

Fed Gets another ‘Green Light’ 

September's strong jobs report gave the Fed more scope to continue with their aggressive rate hikes. Unfortunate a Fed "green light" is a stock "red light"

Tread Carefully…

The two biggest headwinds facing stocks are higher rates (bond yields) and the US dollar index. Both are yet to peak or show signs of a downward trend. And until they do - we can't call a bottom in equities.

The Most Important Thing We’re Yet to See

Stocks are rallying as bond yields and the dollar index are pulling back. But I would temper any enthusiasm - this remains a very bearish market. Why earnings expectations need to come down.

Things Starting to Look a Little Better

Markets are slowly but surely starting to look better. Yes - they are 25% off their highs - but that's a healthy development. The way we make money is buying well. And with a little patience - we hope they go lower. My S&P500 target remains around 3200...

Druckenmiller Warns of 2023 ‘Hard Landing’

There are few smarter in the investing world than Stan Druckenmiller. For 30 straight years he averaged a 30% CARG whilst not having a single losing year. It's unparalleled. He is warning that stocks are still over-valued (despite a 24% correction) and a hard-landing is likely by the end of 2023

Forget Stocks… It’s All About Bond Yields

Where bonds go - so go equities. As bond yields surge to new highs - with the 2-year yield now well above 4.0% - stocks are almost certain to trade lower.

The Only Way is Up

Is 75 the new 25? Fed funds futures are now pricing in a nominal rate of 4.5% to 4.75% for February 2023, with the first interest rate cut coming in November 2023. Markets are now slowly coming to accept this new reality...