Chinese Stocks: Ultra-High Risk… But is this Trade Worth It?

Trading and investing is very much about understanding the risk vs the reward. In fact, it's far more about the former than the latter. What can potentially go wrong with this trade? How much do I stand to lose if things don't work out? Can I afford to take that risk? That's your basic equation with any investment. Gold, bonds, property, stocks... you name it. For e.g., staying in cash carries risk - as it will lose at least 5% of its value over the next 12+ months.

Jobs Disappoint (again)… But Yields Rise

There are two monthly data 'prints' (above all others) which are said to shape the Fed's timing on any imminent taper: (1) employment; and (2) inflation. Re the former - hiring in the U.S. fell far below expectations last month, with employers adding just 194,000 jobs versus the expected 500,000

Trading Per the Script

October is certainly one of the more 'opportunistic' months of the year (in my view) - however it comes with a bad rap. October is a whopping 36% more volatile than the other months (on average). But don't let volatility like today scare you...

Yields Consolidate as Stocks Exhale

Stocks caught a small bid as bargain hunters started to sniff around. That's expected after a few days of selling. Yesterday I suggested that yields would likely consolidate after a furious run - and this is what we saw. The 10-year bond yield pulled back to 1.46% - down 9 basis points from yesterday's 1.55%.

Trading the Pullback

September has a reputation of being a bad one for investors. This month didn't disappoint! It was the worst month since March 2020. You can pick your poison as to why... but I honestly think this is the case of the market getting ahead of itself...

10-Year Bond Yields Jump… Sectors to Avoid

Keep your eye on bond yields. The US 10-year was up 19 bps as bond investors started to price is stickier inflation - and the possibility of the Fed being forced to move sooner than expected. Yep... lock it in

Your Cash Really is ‘Trash’ the next 12+ Months

Fed Chair Jay Powell has told you "your cash is trash". What's more - he is quite happy with that... as they hold a (monetary) gun to savers (and retirees) heads. Question - what are you going to do about it?

A ‘Dovish’ Fed Cuts Growth but Raises Inflation Outlook

"Coming soon" is all the Fed could offer with respect to a definitive timeline on tapering their $120B monthly asset purchases. Suitably nebulous if you ask me... but the inflation risks are real.