Buyable Dip Followed by Another Rally

My most recent post concluded with the thesis that stocks are headed higher. Two good reasons: (1) Interest rates likely to remain at negative in real terms (which is inflationary); and (2) cash is likely to lose 5%+ over the next year...

Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads

Recession Indicators: Analyzing M2 Money Supply and Swap Spreads

Markets continue to climb the so-called 'wall of worry'. The S&P 500 put in its first negative week since the week ending Sept 17th. From mine, I think the market finds technical resistance around this zone (e.g. 4700 to 4800).

6.2% YoY CPI… Nice Work Fed!

Inflation is easy to explain: it's excess money chasing too few goods. Milton Friedman put it like this: "it has always been (and always will be) a monetary problem". To that end, look no further than the Fed with money creation.

What Gold Needs to Rally

The precious metal caught a bid the past few weeks... most notably after 10-year bond yields pulled back. This move has some asking whether gold is about to rally - especially given the Fed's easy money policies and hotter-than-expected inflation for longer?

Expect a Strong Close to 2021

Despite the crash in March last year - 2020 finished the year with 16% gains. Therefore, it's remarkable to think the subsequent year is more than likely to deliver an incremental 20%+ return. It makes you question what 2022 will return?

Fed Gives ‘Green Light’ to Speculators

Yesterday my closing comment was "... my feeling is the Fed will not want to knock equities off balance". True to form - they didn't. The most dovish Fed President in history delivered exactly the words the market wanted to hear. i.e., the tab remains open.

The RBA’s Dilemma… When Things Go Wrong

This week we will hear from the Fed on monetary policy...They're expected to not only announce imminent plans to reduce their $120B monthly bond purchases (as early as November) - but are likely to shed more light on their timing of rate rises.

Fed’s Inflation Gauge Hits Fresh 30-Yr High

Inflation is ripping higher and the Fed are acting like a dear in the headlights. All the whilst, today marks the sixth consecutive quarter in which the bottom-up EPS estimate increased during the first month of the quarter... a record. There's a lot of cheap money around - but it's coming at a cost; i.e. inflation

“Bits vs Bytes” for Big Tech Earnings

The collective market caps of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Apple are north of ~$9 Trillion. To put that into perspective, the entire sum of the S&P 500 is ~$38 Trillion; FMAGA is ~24% of the entire market.

FB, GOOG and MSFT Report – What Did we Learn?

This post looks at the latest results for Alphabet (Google); Facebook and Microsoft. In short, each of these stocks deserves a solid place in your long-term portfolio.

Big Tech Earnings on Tap… as Bond Yields Jump

Earlier this week I said bond yields are now calling Jay Powell's bluff. My take is bonds sense higher inflation ahead (at least for next year). And as we know - 'bond markets are typically early... but generally right'...

Inflation: Here Today… Gone Tomorrow?

Rates are almost certain to rise... evidenced by what we see with the 10-year yield and break-even rates.
As a result, when rates do rise, this will temper demand. However, it will do nothing to ease the supply bottlenecks across the world.