Are We About to Experience 1970s Stagflation?

Global growth is slowing as inflation hits new 40-year highs - as the Fed embark on tighter monetary policy. Are we about to experience 1970s stagflation?

Dollar Index, Gold and Oil all Surge

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is driving the demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, gold and bonds. Where to from here?

Powell Less Hawkish… Threading a Fine Needle

The Fed assured investors today that they will only raise rates 25 bps in March. However, they remain well 'behind the curve' on inflation... which could prove costly

The #1 Question for Investors by Year’s End

From mine, there is one question investors need to ask themselves this year: where will the US 10-year finish the year?

Berkshire: The Power of Compounded Returns

Warren Buffett's investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway has posted an Compound Average Growth Rate of 20.1% for 57 years. This dwarfs the S&P 500 average of 10.5% inclusive of dividends.

Market’s Litmus Test is the Next 2-3 Weeks

Market needs to close back above the 35-week EMA 4100 appears to be a line-in-sand S&P 500 as “cheap” as we”ve seen in 2 years at 4220 Major U.S. indices staged a massive rip-for-face-off rally the past two days. Short-traders…

Stunning Intraday Reversal… What Does It Mean?

Short covering rally? Or genuine buyers? Why aren”t bonds catching a bid on Ukraine? Real 10-Yr Yields highlight the inflation problem Before trade opened today – Dow Futures were down some 800 points. The unprovoked attack on Ukraine from Russia…

Wars Typically Bring Opportunity

Another high-quality stock for your watchlist Why the Fed should stay the course irrespective of Russia I”ll take a recession over out-of-control inflation A lot has happened since I last penned a missive. Tensions with Russia seemed to have escalated… …

Dow’s Worst Day for 2022

Volatility here to stay PPI hits 9.7% Year-on-Year Why the Fed will be on the “front foot” in March 2021 will be remembered for its unusual lack of volatility. Markets offered traders only two pullbacks which barely hit 5%. 2022 is…

Inflation Soars – 7 Rate Hikes For 2022

CME forecasts 100% chance of 50bps hike in March CPI hits highest level since Feb 1982 at 7.5% 5-year inflation expectations at 2.8% Definition of inflation: excess money chasing too few goods.  It is entirely a monetary phenomenon.  Put another…

Do You Buy Meta Platforms (FB) Here?

Tonight”s post focuses on the 41% slide in Meta Platform”s (i.e., Facebook) stock. Is this a buyable opportunity? Or is it one to avoid? My short answer is two-fold: (a) I think we could see a little more downside; however (b) if…

10-Yr Yield Surges on Jobs… 6 Rate Hikes for ’22?

Facebook taketh away; and Amazon giveth S&P recovers but more work required 10-year yield surges above 1.90% on growth outlook It was a topsy turvy week – however the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished their best week of the year so…