Is this Near-Term Rally the ‘Real Deal’?This market has a '2007 feeling' about it. October 2007 to be precise. Approx. 15 years ago, markets were setting new record highs (up ~50% over 3 years) however the bond market was telling us something else.
Powell Reiterates ‘Price Stability’ Risk Fed Chairman Jay Powell has two very difficult choices. On the one hand - the Fed must do "all that it takes" to fight damaging persistent high inflation - where CPI could exceed 10% over the next few months. On the other - failure to address these risks pose a much larger threat to the economy.
Why It Makes Sense to Buy “Peak Fear”This post examines the annual returns on the S&P 500 if buying when the VIX hits (a) 35 and (b) 45 (i.e. peak fear). In summary, it pays the buy when everyone is selling....
Relief Rally as Powell Delivers 7 Rate Hikes for ’22Make no mistake - this was a hawkish Fed. Seven rate hikes this year is on the more aggressive side - but overdue. Powell adding the Fed are willing to move above neutral over the next two years... but stocks rallied on the news.
Markets Could see a Near-Term BounceAre we approaching a near or longer-term bottom? That's very hard to answer... but I do think we might be about to encounter a short-term bounce. That said, there are a few technical hurdles the market needs to overcome before we turn outright bullish.
What Typically Happens after Rate Rises?This post looks at how equities have reacted over the past 40 years to the initial rate rise from the Fed. In short, markets generally react positively to the first rate hikes... averaging more than 6% gains in the first 6 months.
Markets Searching for a BottomMarkets continue to grind lower faced with increasing uncertainty. Risks to inflation, Fed policy and the conflict with Russia and Ukraine remain at the top of list. How long before we see earnings revisions lower? That's likely to come...
Nothing Changes after Today’s Surge HigherMarket staged their best day in 2 years... with the Nasdaq up 3.6%. For now, this smells like a bear-market rally. We need to see more to add conviction the bottom is in for 2022...
Why I Added to Shopify TodayMarkets don't like non-profitable companies. They are being thrown out. Some of them deserve to be. But strong free cash flow companies deserve a closer look. Shopify fits that bill... this is why I bought some today.
Are We About to Experience 1970s Stagflation?Global growth is slowing as inflation hits new 40-year highs - as the Fed embark on tighter monetary policy. Are we about to experience 1970s stagflation?
Dollar Index, Gold and Oil all SurgeRussia's invasion of Ukraine is driving the demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, gold and bonds. Where to from here?
Powell Less Hawkish… Threading a Fine NeedleThe Fed assured investors today that they will only raise rates 25 bps in March. However, they remain well 'behind the curve' on inflation... which could prove costly
