Why The “Fed Put” is a Lot Lower

Forget about a Fed Put at 3800 - I think it's a lot lower. Fundamentally and technically I construct a case where the S&P 500 could easily trade 3500 this year. And if so - I would be a strong buyer for the long-term.

Near-Term Bounce – Followed by Retest of Lows 

With the S&P 500 trading a smidge below 20% off its high this week... and the Nasdaq firmly in "bear market" territory... it's my view that equities represent far better risk/reward than they did earlier this year. In fact, some are as attractive as I've seen in over a decade (and why I added to select positions this week)

Bear Market Rally… For Now

The S&P 500 has lost ground 7 weeks in a row. We have not seen that since 2011. At its low - we are 20% off the high. Is this the bottom? I don't think so. Whilst I expect a near-term rally - lower lows are possible this year.

Tech Pummeled… But “Fear Index” Still Low

In three sessions - we've seen over $1 Trillion of market cap wiped off mega-cap tech names. And whilst we're closer to a bottom - where valuations of some companies are attractive - there's likely more downside yet.

Where Do We Go From Here?

How much more volatile could things get? Does it get worse? Or have we found bottom? My best guess: expect greater volatility; more pain ahead; and it's unlikely the selling has finished.

M2 Money Supply Still Far Too High 

Heading into the Fed decision - some feared we could see a 75 basis point rise. However, Jay Powell soon put those fears to rest. But the relief didn't last long... the 10-year treasury ripped above 3% as the market digested what a combination of (far) higher nominal rates.

Stocks are Yet to Experience a Solid ‘Flush’

At the start of this month we were talking about April's strong historical record. But as we know, records mean nothing. This month was brutal especially for the Nasdaq. It posted its worst monthly performance since 2008.

Amazon Disappoints… Apple Delivers

Meta (aka Facebook) helped advance tech stocks today... however the reprieve may only be temporary. Investors snapped up the social advertising leader - which showed a small increase in DAUs (Daily Active Users) and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User).

Nasdaq: On Pace for Worst Month Since 2008

The Nasdaq is on track for its worst month in 14 years. Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook are all well off the highs. Netflix has lost more than 60% of its value...can the sector find support? And where?

Markets Brace for a ‘Hard Landing’

This week more than 35% of the total S&P 500 market cap report earnings. Of that - 25% comprise just 5 names: GOOG, MSFT, META, AAPL and AMZN. It could be "make or break" for the market... pending how these names hold up....

12 Stocks to Own on any “Panic Selling”

If you are investing today - you need to remain extremely selective with stocks. Look at the decimation in names like Facebook and Netflix. This post offers my checklist when selecting a stock....

Netflix: It’s Now Worth ‘Subscribing’

Netflix announced their Q1 2022 earnings after the close today. It wasn't pretty. The stock is down 26% at the time of writing... trading around $258 per share. They reported a loss of 200,000 subscribers last quarter... and it sent traders scrambling... but is it worth buying here?