The Bear Roars… Markets Price in 75 bps HikeWhen it comes to the market - there are (a) times to make money; and (b) times not to lose money. Now is the time for the latter... the past decade was the time for the former.
20%+ Sell-Off Great News for Patient InvestorsA 20%+ sell off isn't a time to worry... quite the opposite... it's a time to get excited and to sharpen your pencils. The Fed is about to gift us a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity...
We Haven’t Seen the Lows for 2022Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) continues to run at a 41-year high 8.6%. It's not hard to explain - look no further than monetary and fiscal policy. From mine, the Fed has no choice but to remain very aggressive - where a 75 basis point raise is not off the table. This is not conducive for higher stock market prices in the near-term
Don’t Be Fooled…CPI for May is expected to come in at a red-hot 8.2%. Anything north of 8% will not change the Fed's aggressive stance. In short, inflation is not likely to go away soon... look no further than energy and food prices. Here's why the Fed will hike straight into a recession.
Bear Market Bounce… Then Down Post EarningsThis market narrative is very much "fire" and "ice" - according to Mike Wilson at MS. "Fire" from the Fed on inflation; and "ice" in terms of lower earnings...
A Cautious Market – MSFT & TSLA WarnLeading CEO's are warning of storm clouds ahead. However, recent economic data suggests near-term recession fears are over-blown. Are the Fed hiking too far too fast?
Time to Lengthen Your Time HorizonsJamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase -told the market to brace for an economic hurricane. There's weight to his comment - however it will be a great long-term buying opportunity if correct.
The Risk/Reward for EquitiesWhat's the risk/reward equation for equities? My view - the downside risks still outweigh the upside opposite a host of reasons. Let's explore...
Inflation Analysis: Identifying Peaks and Policy LagsIs inflation peaking? If we knew the answer to that question - markets would be in a very different place.
The problem is - we cannot know for sure. However, there are positive developments...
Market Still has Work to DoThe market is likely to experience a technical short-term bounce. But don't expect it to be sustained. Whilst we may have formed "a low" - I don't think it's "the low" for 2022... here's why
What Markets are Trying to Figure OutMarkets are working hard to try and calibrate a rapidly changing environment. Target and Walmart warned how things have turned sharply over the past quarter. And today it was SNAPs turn...
Why The “Fed Put” is a Lot LowerForget about a Fed Put at 3800 - I think it's a lot lower. Fundamentally and technically I construct a case where the S&P 500 could easily trade 3500 this year. And if so - I would be a strong buyer for the long-term.
