Fed Speak: Doves or Hawks?

Are the Fed doves or hawks? That's a function of your own lens and what you heard. Jay Powell offered some 'stick' and 'carrot' today... but from mine... it was more hawkish (but the market wasn't listening to that)

Big Tech Q2 Earnings: Mixed Bag (So Far)

The market exhaled post Q2 earnings from MSFT and GOOG. In short, demand is not falling off a cliff. To be clear, earnings were not great... but they still both posted double-digit top line growth in a tough environment.

Walmart Cuts Earnings b/w 11% – 13%

Add Walmart to the growing list of names slashing guidance. But this one is notable... especially given their read-through on the average consumer. What did we learn from the US' largest physical retailer.

Forget Snap… There’s a Much Bigger Picture

Next week we have the Fed (expected to raise 75 bps) and big-tech earnings. Both will move markets - but I give more weight to what we hear from Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

Snap. Crackle. Drop!

Feb 2017 you could have bought Snapchat for $24. Fast forward 5.5 years and the stock trades for less than $10. It's a train wreck... and it's not about to improve

Bear Market Rally? Or ‘the’ Bottom for 2022?

Some feel the bottom could be in for 2022. They might be right. Who knows? Sentiment has not been this negative since 2008. However, I think probabilities still favour lower lows.

Can Netflix Turn its Business Around? 

Netflix lost 1M subscribers over Q2 2022. That's 1M less than expected however it's not great. However, there are 4 things Netflix can do to turn things around... and there's room for optimism. But can they do it?

Remain Vigilant When Adding Risk

Over the next few weeks we will hear how US companies navigated a difficult Q2. More importantly, we will also receive guidance looking forward. This will lead to analysts lowering their earnings targets... something the stock market is yet to price in.

JP Morgan Warns of ‘Negative Consequences’

There's a very good reason why inflation is likely to come down next year... the dramatic slowing of (M2) money supply growth. However, we will have uncomfortably high inflation for at least 6-9 months yet.

CPI Exceeds 9% YoY – Fed to Stay the Course

CPI for June was a white-hot 9.1% YoY. But should that be a surprise? Not really. What it does suggest is two consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points... however most of that has been priced in.

Negative Impact of Labor Costs on Earnings

There are three things I want to see before I utter the words "the bottom is in". One of those three are Q3 earnings revisions... they are coming and this is one big reason why...

Sell this Bounce… and Why NZ is Worth Watching

We are in the midst of a bear market rally - but I don't trust it for three reasons. Separately, is New Zealand a canary in the coal mine regarding the impact of raising interest rates?