Market Forecasting: The Futility of Short-Term PredictionsForecasting the direction of the stock market day-to-day / week-to-week is very hard to do. In fact, it's near impossible. That said, over the past 6 months or so I feel things have traded largely 'per the script'... so what's next?
Real Yields Suggest No Recession in 2022Over the past fifty years, the inversion of the 2-year / 10-year yield curve (aka '2-10') has predicted every recession. Given its reliable predictive power - its recent inversion consumes financial media. There's just one problem: It's lousy at timing.
What ‘Shock’ Will 2022 Deliver?Bank of America's top strategist Michael Hartnett issued this note today: "Inflation shock is worsening; rate shock is beginning; and recession shock is coming". Let's explore...
The $10+ Trillion Question The biggest thing we've learned this week (which investors should pay attention to) is what Vice Chair Lael Brainard had to say on aggressive monetary policy (specifically QT). She is largely in favour of ultra-low rates and money printing.... and was Senator Warren's pick for Powell's role. However, now Brainard has conceded we have a problem.
How Much ‘Fed’ Has the Market Priced In?From mine, your 2022 investing / trading 'equation' looks like this: more Fed equals more volatility. The world's most influential central bank confirmed it will act quicker than initially anticipated to reduce its $9 Trillion balance sheet. This is known as 'quantitative tightening' (QT) - intended to reduce the supply of money. And it's about 12+ months overdue...
Why Rates need to Rise Above Inflation LevelsWhen adjusted for inflation, interest rates are deeply negative. In fact, they are historically as low as we've ever seen. As regular readers will know, this is a large reason why risk assets have rallied so much the past couple of years; i.e., your cash is effectively trash (losing some 8% per year).
Wall St. Cut Expectations for 2022Stocks finished 2021 on a high. What's more, most analysts had modest expectations for more gains in 2022. 90 days later and the world has changed. Never before (in my 25 years following markets) have I seen such a broad range of outcomes. But as we wrapped 2021... I felt returns this year would be 'single digit' at best.
S&P 500 Loses 5% for Q1 2022Yesterday I warned readers to treat this rally with caution. Let's just say it was "tripping a few wires". For example, meme stocks were rallying more than 150%... Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF was starting to move sharply... and short-term option trading hit 2021 frenzy levels. Market froth was back...
Be Wary of this Near-Term RallyDo you trust this rally? Is the buying demand real or synthetic? It's been a 'rip your face off' rally the past three weeks. Earlier this month I suggested that "Markets Could See a Near-Term Bounce"... turns out they did just that.
Bond Markets are Always Early… and Typically RightThe stock market is euphoric. It's rising faster than a 1999 internet stock! The bond market however does not share its new-found enthusiasm. It's starting to dust off the "recession playbook". Too early? Maybe... but it does remind me of an old Wall Street saying... "Bond markets are always early... and typically right"
Rates, Inflation and Oil to Dictate the NarrativeTune into any mainstream financial market headline - the narrative is bound to include inflation, interest rates and the price of oil. This is what's most likely to drive the price of stocks for the balance of the year...
Rate Hike History Lesson: Bottoming is a ProcessWith the Fed set to raise rates as much as seven times this year - how safe is it to meaningfully increase your exposure to stocks Is there more downside to come? And is the bottom for 2022 now in? These questions (among others) are top of mind for most readers.
