The Punishing Price of Missed Expectations
A look at the earnings vs expectations from Paypal, Facebook and Google...
Stocks Worst Month Since March 2020
Typically if the market turns in a negative return for January - there is an 87% probability the calendar year will also show negative returns.
‘Buy the Dip’ or ‘Sell the Rip’?
At the start of the year - I said expect a 10-15% sell off in the first half of the year. This is now playing out... but there could be more to come. Do you buy the dip... or sell the rip?
S&P 500 Down ~9% in 3 Weeks… That’s a Good Thing
To start the year - I was looking for a 10-15% type correction. And if we were lucky enough to see that - it would be a great opportunity to pick up share in quality companies which are profitable; and/or have strong free cash flow. Today you had this opportunity and it's exactly what I did.
Fasten Your Seat Belts…
Get ready for a lot more volatility. In short, "more Fed will equal more vol". Rate hikes are coming... only question is how many and how fast...
Tech Sell-Off Not Finished Yet
109 of the S&P 500 stocks are now 20% off their highs. But I think there's much more to come... you need to stay patient here.
Earnings: Will Value Outperform Tech?
Money has been rotating from growth names into 'value' (i.e. those that pay dividends; have predictable cash flow and trade at lower multiples).
Remain Wary of this Bounce
Over the longer-term - the market always correlates to the direction of earnings. The exception is when we have a negative economic backdrop... which we don't have today...
Massive Bond Exodus to Start ’22
Whilst we are just one week into the new year - the selling in bonds has been nothing shy of ferocious. A combination of red-hot inflation (more to come with CPI this week) and a hawkish Fed has sent bond investors racing for the exits - sending yields (and rates) sharply higher.
Value over Growth
Equities are starting to understand the Fed is serious about containing inflation. This is no longer "let's wait and see" ... it's "we have a problem". This will have meaningful impacts for growth stocks...
Thoughts on ’22 with 5 Charts
This post looks at what I think will be the most important (or influential) charts for this year. Spoiler alert: much of this centers on crude oil, inflation, rates and of course the Fed...
Hits & Misses for 2021
At the end of every calendar year, I like to look back at what worked and what didn't. I'm mostly interested in reviewing my mistakes... versus trades that worked well. Let's take a look...