The Bull vs Bear Battle Lines are DrawnThe bulls have market momentum supported by solid breadth. We are past peak inflation (it would seem) which lends itself to a more dovish Fed (in theory). However, valuations are high - trading 18.5x forward. What's more, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity - not adding to it. That's an argument for the bears.
The “Everything Rally” as CPI Comes in at 8.5% YoYThe market has now rallied to a zone of potential resistance (4200 to 4400). The next few weeks will be a strong litmus test for market. My guess is we roll over...
Do Upside Gains Easily Outweigh the Downside Risks?With the S&P 500 some 14% off its lows - trading just below 4200 - at 17.5x fwd PE - what's the potential upside reward? And do those potential gains outweigh the downside risks?
Stay Patient – Pullback ComingWhen prices are rising (as they are today) in a bear market -- all too often sentiment will shift prematurely. It's called a bear-market trap. And I think this is what we are seeing...
It’s All About Bond YieldsThe market is currently being led by one thing: what we see with bond yields.
Why Bad (Jobs) News Could be Good NewsA 'bad print' for the number of jobs created (or lost?) over July could actually be good news for stocks. On the other hand, a strong number only amplifies the Fed's resolve to hike
Risk On? Or Classic Bear Trap?The S&P 500 is up 14% from its June lows. But from mine, this is still a bear market rally. The Fed is far from done.
Why These Companies are my ‘Core’ Top 4 HoldingsIf you don't own each of Apple, Microsoft, Google or Amazon - you should consider it. These are four of the highest quality companies listed globally for good reason... the only question to ask is what premium you should pay... and not whether you should own them.
Fed Speak: Doves or Hawks?Are the Fed doves or hawks? That's a function of your own lens and what you heard. Jay Powell offered some 'stick' and 'carrot' today... but from mine... it was more hawkish (but the market wasn't listening to that)
Big Tech Q2 Earnings: Mixed Bag (So Far)The market exhaled post Q2 earnings from MSFT and GOOG. In short, demand is not falling off a cliff. To be clear, earnings were not great... but they still both posted double-digit top line growth in a tough environment.
Walmart Cuts Earnings b/w 11% – 13%Add Walmart to the growing list of names slashing guidance. But this one is notable... especially given their read-through on the average consumer. What did we learn from the US' largest physical retailer.
Forget Snap… There’s a Much Bigger PictureNext week we have the Fed (expected to raise 75 bps) and big-tech earnings. Both will move markets - but I give more weight to what we hear from Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft.
