Time to Lengthen Your Time Horizons

Jamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase -told the market to brace for an economic hurricane. There's weight to his comment - however it will be a great long-term buying opportunity if correct.

The Risk/Reward for Equities

What's the risk/reward equation for equities? My view - the downside risks still outweigh the upside opposite a host of reasons. Let's explore...

Core PCE Rises 4.9%… But Is it Peaking?

Is inflation peaking? If we knew the answer to that question - markets would be in a very different place.
The problem is - we cannot know for sure. However, there are positive developments...

Market Still has Work to Do

The market is likely to experience a technical short-term bounce. But don't expect it to be sustained. Whilst we may have formed "a low" - I don't think it's "the low" for 2022... here's why

What Markets are Trying to Figure Out

Markets are working hard to try and calibrate a rapidly changing environment. Target and Walmart warned how things have turned sharply over the past quarter. And today it was SNAPs turn...

Why The “Fed Put” is a Lot Lower

Forget about a Fed Put at 3800 - I think it's a lot lower. Fundamentally and technically I construct a case where the S&P 500 could easily trade 3500 this year. And if so - I would be a strong buyer for the long-term.

Near-Term Bounce – Followed by Retest of Lows 

With the S&P 500 trading a smidge below 20% off its high this week... and the Nasdaq firmly in "bear market" territory... it's my view that equities represent far better risk/reward than they did earlier this year. In fact, some are as attractive as I've seen in over a decade (and why I added to select positions this week)

Bear Market Rally… For Now

The S&P 500 has lost ground 7 weeks in a row. We have not seen that since 2011. At its low - we are 20% off the high. Is this the bottom? I don't think so. Whilst I expect a near-term rally - lower lows are possible this year.

Tech Pummeled… But “Fear Index” Still Low

In three sessions - we've seen over $1 Trillion of market cap wiped off mega-cap tech names. And whilst we're closer to a bottom - where valuations of some companies are attractive - there's likely more downside yet.

Where Do We Go From Here?

How much more volatile could things get? Does it get worse? Or have we found bottom? My best guess: expect greater volatility; more pain ahead; and it's unlikely the selling has finished.

M2 Money Supply Still Far Too High 

Heading into the Fed decision - some feared we could see a 75 basis point rise. However, Jay Powell soon put those fears to rest. But the relief didn't last long... the 10-year treasury ripped above 3% as the market digested what a combination of (far) higher nominal rates.

Stocks are Yet to Experience a Solid ‘Flush’

At the start of this month we were talking about April's strong historical record. But as we know, records mean nothing. This month was brutal especially for the Nasdaq. It posted its worst monthly performance since 2008.