adriant

adriant

  • Joined: December 24, 2025
  • Articles: 484

The Slowdown is Here… Now What?

Feb 15th I asked this question: "Ready for a Growth Scare?" Markets were yet to correct at the time... however fast forward ~5 weeks and the growth scare has arrived. Now investors are taking notice. The Fed warned growth is likely to slow this week - where Chair Powell said economists outside of the central bank have generally moved up their estimated chance of a recession. The Fed downgraded its economic growth outlook while raising its inflation projection. They see the U.S. economy growing at a 1.7% pace this year, down 0.4 percentage points from what it forecast in December.

Consumer Confidence Sinks… Can the Market Rebound?

It was a roller-coaster week for stocks... maybe a hint of things to come? From mine, in the very short term, markets were deeply over-sold looking at its Relative Strength Index (RSI). Often when you see the RSI below a value of 30 - buying isn't too far away. The last time stocks sank ~10% over a few days was 2020. However, in the absence of any crisis, generally this will see both short covering and/or bargain hunting. The bigger question is whether stocks can follow through? I don't think we draw that conclusion yet...

Let’s not Forget About Yen Strength and JGB’s

Enjoying the ride so far? I guess it depends on how you were positioned. Even a genius can look like an idiot if they are caught out of position. Those who had excessive exposure to tech (or chips) may not be enjoying things. Most of their 2024 gains have been wiped out.
It doesn't take long when there's a rush to the exits. On the other hand - if you pivoted into value orientated names (which traded at more reasonable multiples) - things will look more positive

Buckle Up Buttercup…

Fasten your seatbelts - things could get bumpy. Trump has amplified the seeds of worry stating he was willing to work through a "bit of disruption" - as it will lead to longer-term gains. And whilst a recession was not on anyone's bingo card last month - those probabilities are increasing.

Worst Week of the Year… Uncertainty Weighs

Approx 2 months ago - it felt like markets were starting to hedge their bets. How could I tell? Whilst the market was trading near record highs (around 6100) - momentum was fading. I commented on both the weekly MACD and RSI falling - whilst prices remained high. Technicians call this "negative divergence". Quite often it suggests prices are at greater risk of easing. Since then they've dropped ~6%. The week ending March 7th was the worst week for the year and the third straight week of losses... more to come? I think so...

How to Know When Markets are Panicky

Are markets panicking? That depends on who you ask. A short-term trader might see the ~6% move lower as significant. On the other hand, those who invest for longer-term (such as myself) see a ~6% move down as nothing at all. From mine, panic isn't here yet. However, there is a measure which can help us identify when markets are overly fearful. And generally - they are great buying opportunities. But we are not there yet.

How Far Will Multiple Expansion Take Us?

Earnings per share growth has averaged 8.3% pa from 2015 through today. However, capital appreciation in stocks (exclduing dividends) has seen a CAGR of 11.0% over the same 10-year period. This divergence is widening which indicates multiple expansion. From mine, investors should be braced for mean reversion.

How Buffett Built a $1.1 Trillion Cash Machine

How Buffett Built a .1 Trillion Cash Machine

Whilst market's fret about slowing growth ("Ready for a Growth Scare?") - Warren Buffett sits back with a smile. His company - Berkshire Hathaway - rallied to fresh record high this week after the company reported a record high quarterly profit. Its market value is now over $1.1 Trillion. So how did Buffett build this incredible cash machine? I'll outline three (basic) reasons... all of which you can emulate.

Nvidia is Cheaper… But Not Cheap

Nvidia's latest quarterly numbers were very impressive - producing 78% sales growth. They dominate the market for AI chips. A small nitpick could be the three point decline in gross margins (but that's expected). Let's not forget - those gross margins are still 73%. No-one else comes close in the semiconductor industry. So why would the stock tank 8.5%? Simple: expectations. The market knew that Nvidia was going to grow at revenue at least 70%+ where gross margins would be north of 70%. But growth is slowing (as they get bigger) and margins are declining (as competition starts to ramp up)

Buffett: “Often, Nothing looks Compelling”

Saturday Feb 22nd was circled on my calendar. It was the day Warren Buffett shared his annual shareholder letter. If you want to become a better long-term investor - it's worthwhile reading every one of his 59 letters (from 1965). With respect to valuations he offered this: “We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves 'knee-deep' in opportunities.”