Will Falling Commodities Help Drive Inflation Lower?Commodity prices are well off their peaks. In theory, this should lead to lower CPI in coming months. But is this more an indication of a recessionary risk? I think so...
Market Poised to Rally… But Tread CarefullyBear market bounce or market bottom? For me, it's the former. Two things: (i) we still need to see earnings revisions come down; and (ii) the market has a large technical hurdle it's yet to clear...
Bear Market Lessons… and is Property About to Plunge?Be careful of any bear market rally - they are usually quite sharp. This post looks at the numerous "10-20%" rallies we saw during 2000 and 2008... and outlines what we need to see to know the bottom "is in"
Why Markets Crash; and Why It Spells OpportunityWhy do markets crash? And how do you identify the likelihood of downside risk before it happens? And when it happens - how do you know when to get back in?
S&P 500: Zones to Start Buying for the Long-TermS&P 500 has given up ~12% in just two weeks. 11 of the past 12 weeks have seen declines.That's not something you see too often... but it is a time you should be sharpening your pencil... and getting very excited.
Fed Hints at ~3.50% by Year’s EndFor the first time since '94 - the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points. You can lock in 75 bps for July. However, they will need to do a lot more to tame unwanted inflation.
The Bear Roars… Markets Price in 75 bps HikeWhen it comes to the market - there are (a) times to make money; and (b) times not to lose money. Now is the time for the latter... the past decade was the time for the former.
20%+ Sell-Off Great News for Patient InvestorsA 20%+ sell off isn't a time to worry... quite the opposite... it's a time to get excited and to sharpen your pencils. The Fed is about to gift us a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity...
We Haven’t Seen the Lows for 2022Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) continues to run at a 41-year high 8.6%. It's not hard to explain - look no further than monetary and fiscal policy. From mine, the Fed has no choice but to remain very aggressive - where a 75 basis point raise is not off the table. This is not conducive for higher stock market prices in the near-term
Don’t Be Fooled…CPI for May is expected to come in at a red-hot 8.2%. Anything north of 8% will not change the Fed's aggressive stance. In short, inflation is not likely to go away soon... look no further than energy and food prices. Here's why the Fed will hike straight into a recession.
Bear Market Bounce… Then Down Post EarningsThis market narrative is very much "fire" and "ice" - according to Mike Wilson at MS. "Fire" from the Fed on inflation; and "ice" in terms of lower earnings...
A Cautious Market – MSFT & TSLA WarnLeading CEO's are warning of storm clouds ahead. However, recent economic data suggests near-term recession fears are over-blown. Are the Fed hiking too far too fast?
