Remain Wary of this Bounce
Over the longer-term - the market always correlates to the direction of earnings. The exception is when we have a negative economic backdrop... which we don't have today...
Massive Bond Exodus to Start ’22
Whilst we are just one week into the new year - the selling in bonds has been nothing shy of ferocious. A combination of red-hot inflation (more to come with CPI this week) and a hawkish Fed has sent bond investors racing for the exits - sending yields (and rates) sharply higher.
Value over Growth
Equities are starting to understand the Fed is serious about containing inflation. This is no longer "let's wait and see" ... it's "we have a problem". This will have meaningful impacts for growth stocks...
Thoughts on ’22 with 5 Charts
This post looks at what I think will be the most important (or influential) charts for this year. Spoiler alert: much of this centers on crude oil, inflation, rates and of course the Fed...
Hits & Misses for 2021
At the end of every calendar year, I like to look back at what worked and what didn't. I'm mostly interested in reviewing my mistakes... versus trades that worked well. Let's take a look...
2021 – A Torrent of Buying
When stock indices double their average rate of return in any one year (typically around 10%)... you need to ask why. Two catalysts which come to mind: (i) negative real rates; and (ii) central bank liquidity.
Will We See a Santa Rally?
The S&P 500 dropped ~3% over the past three days - marking the worst decline over a three-day span since September. I feel we are working through the early stages of a decent (buyable) correction.
When Will the Next Recession Hit?
The market is afflicting the comfortable... and discomforting the afflicted. What felt like a relief rally Wednesday abruptly turned negative to end the week....
Relief Rally on ‘Expected’ Fed Move
The Fed's $1.44T QE program is going to end in a few months. Great news... but I would argue 6-9 months too late. They caused a bubble in speculative assets (which will bust) - not to mention stoking dangerous levels of unwanted inflation.
It’s All About the Fed…
Nothing has a greater impact on financial risk assets than the availability of liquidity and its price. Rate hikes are coming - it's just how many and how fast?
Hot CPI Priced In… But are 3 Rate Hikes for ’22?
Friday we learned US CPI hit 6.8% year-on-year for the month of November. Here's the thing: there is an entire generation of people have never experienced 'sticker shock' like this in their adult lives.
Reaction in Bond Yields to Tell CPI Story…
Ready for higher rates? They are coming. Higher rates will equal a stronger dollar -- which will pressure global markets and particularly emerging market debt.